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Fernando Tatis Jr. Suspended 80 Games For Performance-Enhancing Drug Violation

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Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 2022 season is over. In a stunning development, Major League Baseball announced Friday afternoon that the Padres star has tested positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. He’s been suspended for 80 games without pay, effective immediately. Tatis, who confirmed he’s already dropped an appeal he’d initially filed, goes on the restricted list.

Tatis released a statement via the MLB Players Association (Twitter link):

“I have been informed by Major League Baseball that a test sample I submitted returned a positive result for Clostebol, a banned substance. It turns out that I inadvertently took a medication to treat ringworm that contained Clostebol. I should have used the resources available to me in order to ensure that no banned substances were in what I took. I failed to do so.

I want to apologize to (owner Peter Seidler), (president of baseball operations A.J. Preller), the entire Padres organization, my teammates, Major League Baseball, and fans everywhere for my mistake. I have no excuse for my error, and I would never do anything to cheat or disrespect this game I love. … I am completely devastated. There is nowhere else in the world I would rather be than on the field competing with my teammates. … I look forward to rejoining my teammates on the field in 2023.”

The Padres released a briefer statement of their own on the news:

“We were surprised and extremely disappointed to learn today that Fernando Tatis Jr. tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Prevention and Treatment Program and subsequently received an 80-game suspension without pay. We fully support the Program and are hopeful that Fernando will learn from this experience.”

Preller confirmed to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Dennis Lin of the Athletic) that the organization learned about the suspension this afternoon, around two hours before it was made public. The Padres baseball ops leader was forthright about his frustration, suggesting that “over the course of the last six or seven months, I think (trust has) been something that we haven’t really been able to have.” That’s presumably in reference to the motorcycle accident that fractured Tatis’ wrist. Preller continued, “I think we’re hoping that from the offseason to now, that there would be some maturity. And obviously with the news today, it’s more of a pattern and something we’ve got to dig a little bit more into. I’m sure he’s very disappointed, but at the end of the day, it’s one thing to say it. You have to start by showing it with your actions.”

Tatis will go the entire 2022 season without appearing in a major league game. (Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that he’ll also be barred from representing the Dominican Republic in next spring’s World Baseball Classic). The star shortstop sustained a fracture in his left wrist in an offseason motorcycle accident, an injury that was revealed when he reported to the team in Spring Training. He underwent surgery and was out of action for months. There was finally light at the end of the tunnel, with Tatis sent to Double-A on a rehab assignment last week. He’d played in four minor league games and was set to rejoin the big league club within a couple weeks. That’ll no longer be the case.

The Padres have 48 more games on the regular season schedule. That’ll leave him in position to miss as many as the first 32 games of the 2023 season as well, although Tatis’ suspension would be reduced for any playoff games he misses (if the Padres reach the postseason this year).

It’s a crushing blow to a San Diego team that enters play Friday night in possession of the National League’s final Wild Card spot. They’re just a game clear of the Brewers, setting the stage for a tightly contested pennant race. If they’re to get to the postseason, the Friars will have to do it without the elite midseason reinforcement on whom they’d been counting.

That’s not to say the Padres are doomed. They’ve been without the two-time Silver Slugger winner all season, and they’re nevertheless 12 games above .500 with a +40 run differential. The deadline blockbuster to add Juan Soto and Josh Bell looms larger than ever now. San Diego still has a fearsome middle of the order anchored by Soto, Bell and Manny Machado, while Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar have each hit at above-average levels.

There’s no way to replace a player who owns a .292/.369/.596 slash line through his first three big league seasons, but the Padres are in as good a position as a team can reasonably be to weather Tatis’ absence. They’ve gotten strong play from Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop in his second MLB season. The former KBO star is hitting .247/.324/.371 through 392 plate appearances, exactly league average offense by measure of wRC+. Public metrics have pegged Kim as one of the sport’s top defensive shortstops, making him a more than adequate fill-in for the remainder of the season.

Perhaps the greater roster ramification is that San Diego now has little recourse to replace scuffling center fielder Trent Grisham. Tatis had been slated to play both shortstop and center field on his rehab assignment, and he may well have gotten more time in the outfield down the stretch. While Kim has held down shortstop effectively all year, Grisham owns a .195/.292/.357 line over 411 trips to the plate. He has continued on as the primary center fielder, although Wil Myers has gotten the nod the past three times the Friars have faced a left-handed opposing starter. Skipper Bob Melvin figures to stick with at least a soft platoon arrangement for the stretch run.

While the team will feel the strongest repercussions down the stretch this year, Tatis’ lack of availability in 2022 has to be alarming to the organization over the long term. He’s under contract for another 12 seasons beyond this one under the extension he signed in February 2021. That $340MM deal is the fourth-largest in MLB history, and there’s arguably no one more important to the franchise’s long-term future.

That deal is backloaded. Tatis’ forfeited salary during the suspension, while substantial, isn’t nearly as significant as it would have been had he tested positive a couple years from now. He’ll lose the remainder of this year’s $5MM salary (approximately $1.5MM) as well as around a month’s worth of next year’s $7MM salary. The extent of his salary forfeiture is dependent on how many games he loses next season, which is subject to how far into the playoffs the Friars get this year. He’s likely to miss around 20% of the schedule, which would translate to around $1.3MM in lost salary next year.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tatis had failed a PED test and was facing a suspension.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

A.J. Preller, Mike Rizzo Discuss Juan Soto Trade

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We’re a week removed from one of the biggest blockbusters in MLB history, the deal that sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals to the Padres for five young players and first baseman Luke Voit. Jeff Passan of ESPN takes a long look into the process that eventually led to the deal in a piece that’s well worth a read in full.

A Soto trade seemed unfathomable around a month before the deadline, with Washington general manager Mike Rizzo flatly stating the club wouldn’t deal him. That was before Soto passed on a 15-year, $440MM extension offer that apparently represented the Nationals final offer. At that point, Rizzo and his staff reversed course and turned their attention to the trade market. Passan writes the Nationals identified the Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Rangers and Blue Jays as a preliminary list of teams with the kind of young talent to pull off a deal.

According to Passan, the Nats had whittled that down to a trio of the Cardinals, Dodgers and Padres by the final week of July. With St. Louis reportedly reluctant to include Dylan Carlson in a package that also included a number of top prospects, Los Angeles and San Diego became the final two. Passan relays that San Diego and Washington higher-ups really gathered momentum late into the evening of August 1, the night before the trade deadline. A late entrant to discussions was the inclusion of Bell, one of the top rental bats available, to convince the Friars to part with high-upside 18-year-old pitcher Jarlin Susana. By the middle of the night on August 1-2, Passan reports, the parties agreed to the package of young talent that’d go back to Washington pending review of medical records the next morning. (Passan adds the humorous anecdote that San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller then continued working deep into the night on additional trade possibilities before falling asleep in the middle of a conversation with a member of his scouting staff).

While the initial iteration of the deal included Eric Hosmer going to Washington, the first baseman exercised his limited no-trade protection to block the deal. San Diego pivoted and traded Hosmer to the Red Sox, and Passan writes that San Diego and Washington had each previously agreed that one of Voit or Wil Myers could take Hosmer’s place in the event he refused to waive his no-trade clause.

“We did as well as we could do,” Rizzo opined to Passan. “You lost a Hall of Famer at 23, but I think we expedited our reboot. When you’re looking at the alternative, the same narrative would’ve been out there this winter. If you don’t trade him now, what are you doing in the offseason? I give the Padres’ ownership credit. And I give A.J. credit because he’s not afraid to make a trade like this. And I give our ownership credit.”

Preller went into detail about his team’s involvement in the Soto discussions during an appearance this afternoon on The Show, a podcast from the New York Post with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman. The San Diego baseball operations leader confirmed the Nationals identified his system as one of a handful that could support a blockbuster of this magnitude early in the process.

“We could tell we were going to be one of the final teams if we wanted to participate,” Preller told the Post. “You never know if you’re going to be the team. It’s like anything else, there’s going to be two or three teams that all have really strong packages. … There was just a lot of debate and discussion for us over the next few weeks about the right thing to do, the right players to give up.”

Once the sides were nearing agreement on the prospect return, the onus fell on San Diego to push the deal across the finish line, Preller explains. “At the end, you have to decide. Do you want to do this or not? That’s kind of the gut-check at the end, when the Nats put it on you: ’this five or six-player package gets it done.’ That’s when you come back into the room with your small group of people and (owner) Peter Seidler. It’s on the table if we want to do this. And if we don’t do it, ultimately we have to live with the fact that he may go elsewhere. … At the end of the day, you have to make that decision.”

Obviously, Preller and his group decided to pull the trigger, although he indicated the club wasn’t narrowly focused on a Soto deal. Preller confirmed to the Post that San Diego was involved in discussions with the Angels about Shohei Ohtani. He said there was some but not entire overlap in the young players of interest to both Washington and Anaheim but indicated the Angels were ultimately unwilling to part with Ohtani. Heyman reported last week that Angels owner Arte Moreno wouldn’t sign off on an Ohtani trade while Mike Trout is on the injured list.

Padres fans and/or anyone interested in additional details about San Diego’s trade talks will want to check out Preller’s interview with Heyman and Sherman in full. Preller also discussed the necessity of balancing a roster with star talent and depth, the acquisition of All-Star reliever Josh Hader from the Brewers, plans for rehabbing star Fernando Tatis Jr., and his team’s struggles against the Dodgers among other topics.

Fernando Tatis Jr. To Begin Rehab Assignment

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TODAY: Melvin gave a bit of clarity on when Tatis might return, telling MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that the aim is for Tatis to play in the majors by “mid-August-ish.”

AUGUST 5, 7:16pm: Manager Bob Melvin said Tatis will begin the assignment either tomorrow or Sunday (via Dennis Lin of the Athletic). He’s expected to play both shortstop and center field in the minors.

6:35pm: Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. is getting closer to a return, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (Twitter link) that he’s en route to Double-A San Antonio. He’ll soon begin a rehab assignment there, the final step before he makes it back to Petco Park.

It has been a long time coming for Tatis, who fractured a bone in his left wrist over the offseason. He underwent surgery in mid-March, with the club expressing hope at the time he’d be back by the middle of June. That obviously proved not to be the case. While there were no reports of meaningful setbacks, Tatis didn’t recover at the pace he or the team had hoped. He’s been gradually building through various baseball activities in recent weeks, and he’s now positioned to get into games for the first time this year.

Position players are allowed up to 20 days on rehab assignments. Once Tatis formally begins his assignment in the next few days, he can spend just under three weeks in the minors before the team has to bring him to the majors or shut him back down. They wouldn’t be sending him out if they anticipated the latter outcome, so the club is obviously of the belief he’ll be ready by the middle or end of this month.

Tatis’ forthcoming return will add another star to a lineup already loaded with firepower. Manny Machado is in the MVP conversation, and the Friars brought in Juan Soto and Josh Bell in one of the most monumental trades in MLB history. Add Tatis — owner of a .292/.369/.596 line through his first three seasons — to the mix, and the Padres will deploy an eye-popping top of the lineup for the stretch run.

With Tatis out of action, the bulk of the shortstop work has gone to Ha-Seong Kim. The former KBO star has overcome a rough rookie MLB season to hit at a roughly league average level (.248/.329/.370) while playing Gold Glove caliber defense through 98 games. With Bell, Jake Cronenworth, Machado and another deadline acquisition Brandon Drury all around the infield, San Diego will have an embarrassment of riches on the dirt. Tatis has expressed a willingness to move from shortstop to the outfield if necessary, with center field seemingly the likeliest spot in that case. Soto has right field accounted for, and Jurickson Profar is having the best year of his career in left. Trent Grisham, who has stumbled to a .197/.293/.365 line in just shy of 400 trips to the plate, seems as if he’ll be the odd man out most days once everyone is healthy.

NL Notes: Megill, Suarez, Pomeranz, Bettinger

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It was recently reported that the Mets are aiming to have Tylor Megill work out of the bullpen when he returns from the injured list, given that their rotation is healthier than it was early in the season. However, the team has told Megill that he will be stretched back out as a starter for next year, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The fact that the Mets still want to try Megill as a rotation candidate is fairly sensible, given that it’s possible they will face a huge amount of turnaround in that department in the coming months. Jacob deGrom has long maintained that he’s going to exercise his opt-out after this year, despite his lengthy injury battles. Chris Bassitt has a mutual option for 2023, which is unlikely to be exercised by both sides, as mutual options almost never are. Taijuan Walker has a $6MM player option with a $3MM buyout. Though he can increase the value of that option with incentives as high as $8.5MM with 175 innings pitched this year, he’s still likely to turn that down and find more money in free agency. The Mets hold a $14MM club option over Carlos Carrasco that will vest if he reaches 170 innings and finishes the year healthy.

It’s within the realm of possibility that the Mets begin the offseason with an on-paper rotation of Max Scherzer followed by depth options like David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi. Given all that uncertainty, it’s understandable that they’d want to keep Megill in the mix. He stepped up to fill in for deGrom earlier this season and posted a 1.93 ERA through April, though he then posted an 11.48 ERA after that as his shoulder injury seemed to catch up with him.

Other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • The Padres reinstated righty Robert Suarez from the 60-day injured list yesterday, per a club announcement. The 40-man roster already had a vacancy, meaning no corresponding move was required in that regard. Fellow righty Steven Wilson was optioned to create room on the active roster. Suarez was signed in the offseason after a five-year stint in Japan and has thrown 24 1/3 innings for the Padres this year. His 29.3% strikeout rate is very strong though it also comes with a 13.1% walk rate, leading to a 3.33 ERA on the year so far. He’s been on the IL since early June due to knee inflammation.
  • The San Diego bullpen could soon welcome back another injured hurler, as lefty Drew Pomeranz has begun a rehab assignment. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Pomeranz is expected to pitch in at least two rookie ball games before deciding next steps. Signed to a four-year deal in late 2019, the southpaw had an excellent showing in the shortened 2020 season, throwing 18 2/3 innings with a 1.45 ERA and 39.7% strikeout rate, though he also had a 13.7% walk rate. He was putting up fairly similar numbers last year before undergoing surgery to repair an injured flexor tendon, a procedure he’s still working back from almost a year later. If he can come back in a form that’s anywhere close to what he showed in 2020 and 2021, he should provide a huge boost to the Friars’ relief corps, which also just picked up Josh Hader prior to the trade deadline.
  • The Brewers announced that right-hander Alec Bettinger has been released. The 27-year-old made his MLB debut last year, tossing ten innings over four appearances with an unsightly 13.50 ERA in that small sample. He lost his 40-man roster spot earlier this year, being outrighted in May. Though Bettinger had put up solid minor league number in previous years, he’s not fared well this season, registering a 6.49 ERA through 34 2/3 Triple-A innings. After posting walk rates around 6% in recent years, he’s more than doubled it here in 2022, jumping to 12.9%. His strikeouts have also vanished, coming in at a 12.9% clip this year after being in the 23-27% in prior campaigns.

Guardians, Padres Discussed Eric Hosmer Prior To Trade Deadline

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It was a quiet trade deadline for the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that the club “at times…felt they were close” to landing Sean Murphy from the Athletics, yet no deal was completed.  Murphy was known to be a trade target for the Guards, though another somewhat surprising name was at least briefly on their radar, as Hoynes reports that Cleveland and San Diego had some talks about first baseman Eric Hosmer.  However, those discussions didn’t get far, as the Guardians are one of the 10 teams on Hosmer’s no-trade list.  Hosmer also used his no-trade protection to scuttle his involvement in the Padres’ blockbuster deal with the Nationals for Juan Soto, so the Padres instead moved Hosmer to the Red Sox.

San Diego dealt Hosmer and two prospects to Boston for lefty pitching prospect Jay Groome, and the Padres also covering basically all of the $44MM remaining on Hosmer’s deal (which runs through the 2025 season).  It’s fair to guess that the Guardians might have had interest in something similar, with Hosmer joining Josh Naylor and Owen Miller as part of the first base/DH mix.  Hosmer might have been viewed by the Guards as just a one-season fill-in now that the team is seemingly willing to part ways with Franmil Reyes, but with the Padres footing the bill, Cleveland could have kept Hosmer around as a veteran complement to their younger players.

Austin Adams Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Padres reliever Austin Adams underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his forearm this afternoon, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). It marks a disappointing end to a season that has been wiped out by a forearm strain he suffered in April.

The timetable on Adams’ recovery isn’t clear, but it may cost him a chunk of next season as well. Sanders likens the procedure to the one teammate Drew Pomeranz underwent last August. He’s been out for almost a calendar year and just embarked on a minor league rehab assignment a couple weeks ago. One can’t just assume players’ recovery processes will be identical, of course, but it seems as if the 31-year-old Adams could lose the bulk of the 2023 campaign.

The right-hander made just two appearances this season. Adams got into 65 games a year ago, working to a 4.10 ERA with a huge 31.5% strikeout percentage through 52 2/3 innings. He paired that swing-and-miss stuff with extreme wildness, however, walking nearly 15% of opponents and bizarrely plunking 24 batters. Adams led MLB in opponents hit by pitch, six clear of second-place Joe Musgrove, despite being a single-inning reliever.

Control woes notwithstanding, Adams could’ve worked his way into medium or high-leverage innings on the strength of his wipeout slider had he been healthy this season. Unfortunately, he’s instead spent the vast majority of the year on the 60-day injured list. Adams will be paid his $925K salary and collect a full year of service time. He’ll eclipse the four-year service threshold and remains arbitration-eligible through 2024. He wouldn’t be in line for more than a marginal raise next season if the Pads tendered him a contract, but they could elect to non-tender him and reallocate his spot on the 40-man roster over the winter if they anticipate he’ll miss the majority of the 2023 campaign.

Deadline Recap: National League

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Following one of the wildest deadlines in recent memory — and, perhaps, the most significant deadline trade in living memory — even die-hard baseball fans could be forgiven for losing track of all the action. To get you caught up, here’s a recap of the weird, the wild, and the wacky over the last few days.

San Diego: It’s highly unlikely that anyone reading this post is unaware of the sport-shaking mega-deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, and there isn’t much to say about it that hasn’t already been said by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. Though they’ll almost certainly have to run the three-game Wild-Card-series gauntlet this year, hyper-aggressive president of baseball operations A.J. Preller — who also acquired top-line closer Josh Hader in a deal with the Brewers and free-agent-to-be Brandon Drury from the Reds — has pushed all of his chips into the center of the table, effectively giving his club three seasons to win a World Series. Soto is under control through 2024, and Hader will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2023 season.

Given the size of the package Preller sent to Washington — and the caliber of players therein — anything less than at least one title will feel like a bust. That said, that no opposing pitcher will relish the prospect of facing Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (currently nearing a rehab assignment) in order is a massive understatement, and the Friars will be a force to be reckoned with come October. In San Diego, the future is now.

Atlanta: While one of the league’s hottest teams could have been forgiven for more-or-less standing pat — particularly after locking up third baseman and MVP candidate Austin Riley to a ten-year, $212MM extension — the defending champs were once again active. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos added a major piece to an already strong bullpen, acquiring Raisel Iglesias, in a last-minute deal with the Angels. The Braves also revamped the back half of their roster, acquiring Jake Odorizzi, Robbie Grossman, and Ehire Adrianza to shore up their rotation, outfield mix, and bench, respectively.

Oddly, they also subtracted a bit, sending former closer Will Smith to the Astros in the Odorizzi deal and back-end bullpen stalwart Jesse Chavez to the Angels in the Iglesias deal, but there’s little doubt that the team is stronger after the moves than it was before. Odorizzi provides depth to a rotation that includes a struggling Ian Anderson and rookie sensation Spencer Strider, who may be on an innings limit. The switch-hitting Grossman is a strong righty bat who can share time with the left-handed Eddie Rosario following Adam Duvall’s season-ending surgery. Adrianza offers cover at several positions, including second base, where Ozzie Albies’ timeline on a return from injury remains murky. Iglesias both strengthens and balances a previously lefty-heavy bullpen that, in addition to Smith, had given a great many high-leverage innings to A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek.

Milwaukee: In one of the stranger — if, perhaps, shrewder — moves of the deadline period, the first-place Brewers subtracted a pretty major piece, sending all-world closer Josh Hader to the Padres in exchange for a ready-made high-leverage replacement in Taylor Rogers, the oft-injured but wildly talented Dinelson Lamet, and a pair of prospects. It’s an on-its-face odd move for a serious contender to trade away its most dominant player, but it’s also the sort of tough decision small-market teams (a la the Rays) have had to make to keep a contention window open for as long as possible.

The addition of Rogers softens the blow considerably, and one day after dealing Hader, Milwaukee followed by acquiring righties Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal, further back-filling the ’pen to account for the loss of Hader. Trading Hader — who’ll be a free agent following the 2023 season and could top $15MM in salary next year– now rather than in the offseason gave the Padres two playoff runs with the superstar closer but also maximized the Brewers’ return. Outfielder Esteury Ruiz, in particular, is a largely MLB-ready addition. Devin Williams, Rogers, Bush and eventually Rosenthal give the Brewers plenty of late-inning options.

New York: To the surprise of just about everyone, the Mets — who held a three-game division lead over the Braves entering play Tuesday — didn’t make any major moves. They did add a pair of potential contributors in Darin Ruf (exchanged for J.D. Davis, Thomas Szapucki, and a pair of low-minors pitchers to share DH duties with fellow recent arrival Daniel Vogelbach) and reliever Mychal Givens. They’d been linked to Josh Bell (sent to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto deal) and Trey Mancini (to the Astros) as well as Willson Contreras and Ian Happ (both among the only significant pieces not to move). Ultimately, general manager Billy Eppler didn’t pull the trigger on a move of the scale that had been expected of a first-place team owned by Steve Cohen.

While Givens, who’s had an excellent year with the Cubs, should strengthen an already strong bullpen and Ruf will likely improve surprisingly anemic DH production, manager Buck Showalter will have to largely get by with in-house options the rest of the way.

Los Angeles: The Dodgers entered the deadline period as co-favorites to land Juan Soto and reportedly attempted to at least engage the Angels on Shohei Ohtani. Despite these lofty aspirations, the owners of the NL’s best record had a comparatively quiet deadline, with no move remotely rivaling the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster of a year ago.

Instead, the Andrew Friedman-led front office kept things relatively cool (at least by their recent standards), acquiring reliever Chris Martin from the Cubs for utility-man Zach McKinstry and struggling outfielder/DH Joey Gallo from the Yankees for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter. Nothing the Dodgers could have done would have changed much in the regular season — even with Juan Soto and Josh Hader headed to San Diego, L.A. is all but a lock to win the NL West and a first-round bye. Manager Dave Roberts will have largely have to make do with what he’s got as the Dodgers attempt to get back to the World Series following 2021’s disappointing NLCS loss to the Braves.

St. Louis: Though they came up short in the Juan Soto bidding and watched rumored target Frankie Montas head to the Bronx, the Cardinals — who sat 2.5 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central and a game behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play Tuesday — hardly stood pat. The Cards added left-handed starter Jose Quintana and right-handed reliever Chris Stratton in a deal with the Pirates, as well as southpaw Jordan Montgomery from the Yankees. Though the latter move came at the cost of currently injured but broadly productive outfielder Harrison Bader, there’s little doubt that the Cards emerge from the deadline with a much stronger pitching staff for the final ride of Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, and Yadier Molina than they had before.

The Cards entered the deadline with little stability in rotation beyond Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Dakota Hudson. With offseason signee Steven Matz still on the shelf (and ineffective when he’s been on the field), Quintana and Montgomery should immediately solidify the rotation and give the St. Louis faithful a real shot to send their aging legends into the sunset with a playoff appearance — if not a division title.

Philadelphia: Though only on the periphery of the NL East race, the Phils added several pieces at the deadline, headlined by starter Noah Syndergaard. Thor isn’t the dominant force of his first several Mets years, but he has had a solid bounce-back season with the Angels and will solidify the back end of an already solid rotation — and, perhaps, take the ball in the decisive third game in the Wild Card round.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski also added young outfielder Brandon Marsh to an outfield mix that badly needed a plus defender of this type. Veteran reliever David Robertson strengthens a middle-of-the-pack bullpen and takes the place of struggling veteran Jeurys Familia, who was designated for assignment. The Phils also picked up infielder Edmundo Sosa in a small deal with the Cardinals, adding a standout, versatile defender — albeit one with a light bat.

Washington: The departure of generational talent Juan Soto from a team that went from a World Series title to cellar-dwelling in a flash makes yesterday a sour day for Nats fans, but the haul Mike Rizzo pulled back in return for Soto (and first baseman Josh Bell) could portend much sweeter days ahead. The Nats all but emptied out the top ranks of the Padres’t farm system, adding a coterie of high-caliber prospects in left-hander MacKenzie Gore, shortstop C.J. Abrams, outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, and righty Jarlin Susana alongside make-weight first baseman Luke Voit. In a smaller deal, the Nats also picked up minor league outfielder Trey Harris in a swap sending Ehire Adrianza to the Braves.

Time will tell if Rizzo’s return matches the value of perhaps the best pure hitter since Barry Bonds, but with his club unlikely to contend anytime soon and Soto making clear he had no interest in the best extension offer the Nats were willing to give him, he may not have had much of a choice. They may no longer have Soto, but Washington fans will have more than their fair share of young talent on display for at least the next half-decade.

Cincinnati: The Reds, mired in mediocrity, continued a payroll-driven sell-off. Cincinnati held several of the more intriguing pieces of the deadline period in starters Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle and versatile infielder Brandon Drury. The team broke the deadline logjam, sending Castillo to the Mariners late last week for a quartet of prospects headlined by infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. They hardly stopped there, however, shipping off Mahle to the Twins for three prospects, Drury to the Padres for one, and outfielder Tommy Pham to the Red Sox for a player to be named later.

How long it will take for them to return to contention remains to be seen, but the substantial prospect haul brought back in the last few days should help speed things along. For the time being, though, the product on the field is going to be underwhelming.

Chicago: One of the more confusing teams to read in the offseason, the Cubs had several substantial pieces — including Willson Contreras and Ian Happ — rumored to be on their way out. Instead, they’ll remain on Chicago’s north side for at least the remainder of the season. Happ has a year of control remaining, but the decision by the Cubs/ front office to hang on to Contreras, one of the better bats (non-Soto division) available at the deadline and a free agent at season’s end, is perhaps the most vexing non-move of a deadline in which trades came fast and heavy.

The team did make several deals, however, effectively emptying out the top half of their bullpen. Chris Martin is now a Dodger (in exchange for utility-man Zach McKinstry), and Scott Effross, David Robertson, and Mychal Givens were shipped out to Yankees, Phillies, and Mets, respectively, each in exchange for a minor-league arm. Whether they seek to either hold on to Contreras long-term or simply receive draft pick compensation by issuing him a qualifying offer at season’s end remains to be seen.

Miami: The Marlins — owners of perhaps the most impressive reserve of young, controllable arms in the big leagues — entered the deadline period on the far periphery of the NL Wild Card race. This is something of a disappointment for a team that shelled out real money to add pop to their lineup (they signed Avisail Garcia ahead of the lockout and Jorge Soler after it) with little to show for it, leading to speculation that the club might trade one of its many controllable arms (per the rumor mill, Pablo Lopez) for a controllable bat.

No such deal came to fruition, but GM Kim Ng did send relievers Zach Pop and Anthony Bass to the Blue Jays for 2018 first-rounder Jordan Groshans. The shortstop, who’s also seen time at third and in the outfield, has an intriguing profile and has consistently gotten on base at all levels of the minors, but his power output has fallen off a cliff in his first taste of Triple-A.

San Francisco: Despite listening to offers on impending free agents Carlos Rodon and Joc Pederson in the midst of career years, the disappointing Giants — currently hovering around both .500 and the periphery of the NL Wild Card race but well shy of last year’s torrid pace — largely stood pat at the deadline, making only a handful of minor moves. They acquired infielder Dixon Machado (from the Cubs) and catcher/infielder Ford Proctor (from the Rays) before swapping Darin Ruf for J.D. Davis, pitcher Thomas Szapucki, and a pair of minor-league arms. They also traded away a handful of more minor pieces, including catcher Curt Casali and left-hander Matthew Boyd (to the Mariners for a pair of minor leaguers), and rehabbing right-hander Trevor Rosenthal (to the Brewers for another minor leaguer).

Pittsburgh: With several members of the Pirates’ loaded farm system making their way to the bigs this season, things may finally be starting to look up for the long-suffering Pittsburgh faithful. While 2022 won’t be the year that ends the club’s seven-season playoff drought, the Bucs entered the deadline as clear sellers. They made only a single significant move, sending reclamation project Jose Quintana (signed in the offseason for only $2MM) and reliever Chris Stratton to the division-rival Cardinals for a young arm with some big-league experience in Johan Oviedo and third base prospect Malcom Nunez.

Arizona: A team on the rise but with little to offer in the way of attractive rental talent, the Diamondbacks had one of the quieter deadlines across the majors. They did make a pair of moves, however, shipping David Peralta to the Rays for low-minors catcher Christian Cerda and righty Luke Weaver to the Royals for 26-year-old corner infielder Emmanuel Rivera, who hasn’t hit much in parts of two big-league seasons but showed real pop in the minors.

Colorado: The Rockies gave the rumor mill a bit of grist, with starter Chad Kuhl and reliever Carlos Estevez both reportedly drawing interest, but they ended the day the only team in the majors not to make a trade in the deadline period. They did shell out a bit of money, signing 37-year-old closer Daniel Bard to a two-year, $19MM extension on Saturday — a move that perplexed many onlookers given Bard’s age and status as an otherwise prototypical trade candidate.

Padres Acquire Juan Soto, Josh Bell; C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Luke Voit Among Six Players Back To Nationals

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The Padres pulled off the biggest deadline deal in years, announcing the acquisition of both Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals. San Diego sent back a haul of young talent to complete the blockbuster. Rookie shortstop C.J. Abrams and left-hander MacKenzie Gore are headed to Washington, as are a trio of highly-regarded prospects: outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, and pitcher Jarlin Susana. To round out the deal, the Nats are picking up big league first baseman Luke Voit.

It’s a stunning blockbuster, one of the most seismic trades in major league history. There’s almost no precedent for a player of Soto’s caliber being dealt, particularly not with multiple seasons of remaining club control. The lefty-hitting outfielder is among the game’s top handful of players, a superstar performer who has amazingly yet to turn 24 years old. Soto debuted in the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2018, having played just eight games above A-ball at the time. Even holding his head above water would’ve been impressive in that context, but Soto immediately stepped into the majors as of its best hitters.

Soto hit .292/.406/.517 in 116 games as a rookie. He’s followed that up with successively elite offensive seasons, looking well on his way to being an all-time great hitter. Between 2019-21, Soto hit .304/.440/.561. He averaged more than 25 home runs per year (even with the 2020 schedule being dramatically shortened) and drew plenty more walks than strikeouts. Soto finished in the top ten in NL MVP balloting each season, including a runner-up finish last year. He was an integral part of the Nationals’ World Series winner in 2019, following up a .282/.401/.548 regular season performance with a .277/.373/.554 showing during that year’s postseason. Along the way, Soto claimed a pair of Silver Slugger Awards and was selected to the All-Star Game in 2021.

The 2022 campaign hasn’t been Soto’s best, but a “down” season by his standards would be a career year for most players. Through 436 plate appearances, he’s hitting .246/.408/.485. He’s drawn walks in an MLB-best 20.9% of his trips to the dish while striking out just 14.2% of the time. He’s tied for 17th in the majors with 21 longballs, and he’s third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances in on-base percentage (.408). That’s in spite of a .243 batting average on balls in play that’s easily the lowest mark of his career, nowhere close to .330 figure he carried into the season. The lesser ball in play results do reflect a slight downturn in his batted ball quality, but Soto’s batted ball metrics and exit velocities are better than his actual batting average and slugging output might suggest.

It wasn’t long ago that trading a hitter of this caliber would’ve seemed unfathomable. The Nationals are less than three years removed from their aforementioned championship. Even after a last place finish in 2020, Washington was in win-now mode heading into 2021. A swoon just before last summer’s trade deadline dropped them near the bottom of the National League and kicked off a major reboot that saw stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber traded. All those players were within their final season and a half of remaining control, however, while Soto was still more than three years from free agency at the time. There was seemingly never any consideration on the Nats part to dealing him either last summer or over the offseason.

That remained the case just two months ago, when Washington general manager Mike Rizzo flatly declared the club was “not trading” Soto. That was before their latest (and ultimately final) attempt to sign him to a long-term deal. After Soto rejected a 13-year, $350MM extension offer last offseason, the Nationals reengaged with his representatives this summer. Soto again turned down the Nationals overtures — this time a 15-year, $440MM proposal — and the club pivoted to the trade market.

One could certainly argue whether that was the right course of action for the franchise to take. Even if the organization were convinced that signing Soto to an extension was untenable, they didn’t have to move him this summer. Soto is arbitration-eligible through 2024, so Washington could’ve held onto him until next winter or merely proceeded year-by-year through the arb process and tried to put a contending roster back around him. Rizzo and his staff decided against that course of action. The Nationals have a barren farm system and have curtailed payroll in recent seasons while the Lerner family explores a sale of the franchise. Turning around a team with an NL-worst 35-69 record within the next two years would’ve been an immense challenge even with Soto on the roster, and the Nats are now fully embracing a rebuild that’ll likely take multiple seasons.

That decision will be a tough pill to swallow for at least some segment of the fanbase. Washington has now seen the departures of Scherzer, Turner, Anthony Rendon and Soto within the past few years — dramatically overhauling the franchise’s best clubs since it moved to Washington. They’re surely hopeful that players like Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz and the package of young players they’re receiving in the Soto deal will comprise a core of another contender down the road, but there’s no denying how quickly the Nationals fell from the top after winning the title three seasons back.

On the other side of the equation, the Padres are landing one of the sport’s preeminent superstars to bolster an already star-studded roster. The Friars have gone in the opposite direction of the Nationals over the past few years, coming out of their rebuild in 2020 with an excellent young core after years of building the farm system. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his group have shown a willingness to swing for marquee talent time and again. They’ve signed Manny Machado to a huge free agent contract and swung blockbuster trades for players like Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger. For as aggressive as Preller’s been over his eight years running baseball ops, he’s never had a two-day stretch like this. The Friars sent closer Taylor Rogers, righty Dinelson Lamet and two prospects to land star reliever Josh Hader from the Brewers yesterday. He’s now followed up with the kind of blockbuster that’ll define his front office tenure.

The Padres enter play Tuesday with a 58-46 record. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot and a likely playoff team, but even adding Soto and Hader is unlikely to give them much of a chance at erasing a 12-game deficit to the Dodgers in the NL West. The acquisition is both about solidifying their hold on a playoff spot for this season and adding another impact bat alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. and Machado for the next few seasons. The Padres could theoretically try to reengage Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation about a possible long-term pact, but the more likely scenario would seem to be that he’ll spend the remainder of his arbitration seasons in San Diego.

To get the deal done, the Friars reportedly outbid some of their National League competitors. The Cardinals and Dodgers were generally viewed among San Diego’s top rivals in the bidding for Soto, and there’s surely an added bonus in keeping him away from teams whom San Diego could plausibly meet in the postseason for the next few years. Preller and his staff probably have no small amount of satisfaction in topping the Dodgers’ offers after Los Angeles stepped in to land Scherzer from Washington last summer — not long after reports emerged that San Diego was closing in on a Scherzer agreement with the Nats.

While Soto is obviously the headlining piece of the deal, Bell is far more than an ancillary throw-in. He’s one of the top bats to change hands this summer himself, a player who ranked #3 on MLBTR’s list of the top deadline trade candidates. Bell is one of the more well-rounded hitters in the sport. He’s a switch-hitting power bat who topped out with 37 home runs with the Pirates back in 2019. While that was probably inflated somewhat by the livelier baseball used during that season, Bell has continued to hit for above-average power in the years since then. After a down year in the shortened 2020 campaign, Bell rebounded to connect on 27 longballs during his first season in Washington. He’s hit another 14 homers and 24 doubles through 437 plate appearances this season.

Unlike most power hitters of his ilk, Bell also brings strong bat-to-ball skills to the table. He’s striking out in only 14% of his trips this season, his lowest rate since his rookie year and markedly below the league average. Bell has paired that with quality plate discipline manifesting in an 11.2% walk rate and an overall .302/.384/.493 line. Since being traded to Washington heading into the 2021 season, he’s a .278/.363/.483 hitter in a hair above 1000 plate appearances.

Bell is a pure rental, as he’ll be a free agent for the first time after this season. He’s playing the year on a $10MM salary, around $3.57MM of which is yet to be paid out. He’s limited to first base or designated hitter, but most public metrics agree Bell has played his way to roughly average at first after posting well below-average numbers earlier in his career. While he’s unlikely to ever win a Gold Glove Award, Bell should be a perfectly fine first baseman for the final few months.

A midseason trade not only affords Bell the opportunity to depart a last place club for a contender, it should also boost his free agent stock next offseason. The Nationals were likely to make him a qualifying offer, which would’ve required a signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space after Bell rejected. Players traded midseason the year before free agency are ineligible for a QO, however, so a trade means Bell’s market won’t be hampered by compensation a few months from now.

Taking on what remains of Soto’s $17.1MM salary (approximately $6.1MM) and Bell’s remaining money — coupled with the Hader trade — is sure to push the Friars beyond the luxury tax threshold. Ownership had reportedly been reluctant to exceed that marker for a second straight year, but the opportunity to add this kind of impact talent compelled them to change their thinking. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates the franchise’s post-trade deadline CBT number around $242MM, a fair bit north of the $230MM base threshold. As a payor for a second straight year, they’ll be taxed at a 30% rate on their first $20MM above the threshold, coming out to approximately $3.7MM in extra fees.

With the chance to transform their roster, majority owner Peter Seidler and company signed off on the addition to an already franchise-record payroll. San Diego presumably plans to remain among the league’s highest-payroll clubs in the coming years, as Martinez projects them for $128MM in guaranteed commitments (with a $157MM CBT figure) for next season. That doesn’t include what’s sure to be another massive arbitration raise for Soto — likely into the $25+MM range — although Bell could depart this winter. It’s a territory with which the franchise is evidently now comfortable, and they’ll be rewarded for their aggressiveness with one of the sport’s most entertaining rosters.

In order to add that kind of star power, the Padres had to be prepared to part with a massive package of young talent. The Nationals had reportedly set an asking price of five-plus young major leaguers and/or prospects in any Soto talks, and that’s what they’ll receive. Abrams is presumably the first player of the deal Washington fans will see at Nationals park, as he’s likely to soon join the MLB roster.

The sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, Abrams almost immediately played his way towards the top of prospect lists in pro ball. A left-handed hitter with plus bat-to-ball skills and elite speed, he performed quite well in the low minors. The Georgia native missed a fair bit of action, with the cancelation of the 2020 minor league season and a left leg injury that ended his 2021 campaign in July. That kept Abrams to just 42 games above A-ball entering this year, but the Friars nevertheless carried him on the big league roster after losing Tatis to a wrist fracture.

The 21-year-old has struggled in his big league experience to date, hitting .232/.285/.320 through his first 46 games. That’s not unexpected for a player with his lack of experience, though, and Abrams remains a very highly-touted young player. Optioned to Triple-A El Paso midway through the year, he responded with a .314/.364/.507 showing through 30 games to earn another MLB call. He’s played sporadically at each of shortstop, second base and in the outfield with a win-now team in San Diego, but he should have a clearer path to everyday playing time at shortstop on the Nationals.

Abrams checked in as the game’s #11 prospect on Baseball America’s recent top 100, with the outlet reaffirming that his bat-to-ball skills and athleticism give him a chance to be a franchise shortstop. Abrams’ relatively narrow frame doesn’t lead to huge power projection, but he’s credited with possible 15-20 homer pop at his peak. There’s some debate whether he’ll stick at shortstop or should eventually move to second base or center field, but he’s certain to play up the middle somewhere and could be a traditional top-of-the-order type.

The Padres decision to option Abrams to Triple-A was quite likely more motivated by his struggles at the MLB level than any kind of service time gaming. It did have the effect, however, of ensuring he won’t reach a full year of service this season. He remains controllable through the end of the 2028 season, and future optional assignments could push that trajectory back even further.

Gore would’ve joined Abrams in soon appearing on the MLB roster, but he’s currently on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. The Padres were targeting a September return for the 23-year-old southpaw, although it’s seemingly possible he doesn’t make it back to the mound this season. That’s largely immaterial for the Nationals, who are obviously looking well into the future anyhow. It doesn’t seem the club has real long-term concerns about Gore’s arm health.

If healthy, Gore is among the more interesting young arms in the sport. The third overall pick in the 2017 draft, he quickly developed into the game’s top pitching prospect after dominating lower level hitters. Then came a rough two-season stretch between 2020-21. Gore reportedly struggled with his mechanics and battled extreme wildness at the alternate training site the former year, then had an up-and-down 2021 season that saw the club send him back to the complex for a stretch to reset in a lower-pressure environment. Gore righted the ship to some extent, returned to an affiliate late in the year, and began this season at Triple-A.

After one appearance, Gore was promoted to make his major league debut. He went on to make 13 starts while the club navigated injuries to Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger, pitching to a 4.27 ERA with a solid 23.1% strikeout rate. Gore’s 11.5% walk percentage remained a bit high, but it wasn’t anywhere near the level of control concerns he’d had in prior seasons. San Diego moved him to the bullpen for three outings in order to keep tabs on his innings, and Gore was hit hard before going on the IL.

Whether the elbow issue played into Gore’s late struggles or not, he’s still a plenty sensible inclusion in the deal for the Nationals. He’s a high-end athlete with a fastball that averages just under 95 MPH and a pair of promising breaking pitches. Gore is likely to eclipse a full year of service in 2022, putting him on track to potentially reach free agency after the 2027 campaign. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, however, and any future optional stints could push back his path to the market.

Alongside the two big leaguers, the Nationals bring in a trio of highly-regarded prospects. Like Abrams, Hassell and Wood are regarded as top five prospects in the Padres farm system and among the top 60 minor league players in the game, according to Baseball America. Susana’s not quite at that level, but BA recently slotted him as the Padres #10 prospect.

Hassell, 21 this month, was the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft. He’s a lefty-hitting outfielder who brings a generally well-rounded center field profile. The Tennessee native is regarded as a future plus hitter, and while he doesn’t have overwhelming power, he brings strong bat-to-ball skills and plenty of defensive value. Through 346 plate appearances in High-A this season, Hassell owns a .299/.379/.467 line with ten homers, 20 stolen bases, a lofty 11% walk rate and a solid 19.1% strikeout percentage.

Wood, 19, was the Friars second-round pick last season. A toolsy high school outfielder from Florida, he had swing-and-miss concerns as a draft prospect that led to some questions about his ability to consistently tap into his huge power potential. The 6’7″ outfielder has reportedly made major changes to his mechanics since entering pro ball, however, and he’s tearing the cover off the ball in Low-A. Across 236 plate appearances, the lefty-hitting Wood owns a .337/.453/.601 line. He’s popped 10 homers, swiped 15 bases and has a robust 15.7% walk rate against a more than manageable 17.8% strikeout rate. BA suggests he could be a middle-of-the-order bat capable of swatting 30-plus homers annually at his peak.

Susana, 18, just signed in this past international amateur class. A 6’6″ right-hander, he’s already been clocked into the mid-upper 90s with a plus slider. Susana’s youth and distance from the majors — he’s yet to advance past the complex level — make him a high-risk prospect, but BA notes that he’s a similar caliber of prospect as the same-aged high school pitchers who went in the first round of last month’s domestic amateur draft.

Finally, the Nationals round out the return with Voit. A late entrant to the discussions after Eric Hosmer refused to waive his no-trade rights to go to Washington (leading to his subsequent trade to the Red Sox), Voit moves to both replace Bell in the Washington lineup and offset some salary. Acquired from the Yankees over the offseason, Voit has played in 82 games with San Diego. The 2020 home run champ, he hasn’t managed to replicate that kind of production over the last two seasons. He hit a slightly above-average level in the Bronx last year while battling injuries, and it’s been a fairly similar story in San Diego.

Through 344 plate appearances, Voit owns a .225/.317/.416 line with 13 homers. He’s striking out at a personal-worst 32% rate, but he’s hit for decent enough power to post overall offensive production a bit above par. He’ll presumably see the bulk of first base playing time down the stretch in the nation’s capital. Voit is arbitration-eligible through 2024, although he may be a non-tender candidate, since he’d otherwise be due a raise on this year’s $5.45MM salary.

It’s a blockbuster that’ll have reverberations around the game for years. San Diego is anticipating Soto will go down as one of the most impactful trade pickups in MLB history, and he and Bell will immediately feature in the middle of a lineup the club hopes is set to embark on a long-term playoff run. For the Nationals, it’s an emphatic closing of the book on the franchise’s previous stretch of success — one that brings in an influx of new faces Washington hopes can eventually form the core of another contender in the NL East years down the line.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Padres and Nationals were moving close on a Soto deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the sides had agreed on a deal sending Bell and Soto to San Diego, as well as the inclusion of each of Abrams, Hassell, Wood and Susana. Jim Bowden of the Athletic reported Gore’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first to report Voit was being dealt.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Acquire Eric Hosmer

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The Padres and Red Sox have announced a trade that will send first baseman Eric Hosmer to the Red Sox along with prospects Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson, as well as cash considerations. In exchange, the Padres will receive pitching prospect Jay Groome. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the cash considerations are actually about $44MM, with the Padres paying down the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum.

Hosmer previously exercised his partial no-trade clause to veto a deal to the Nationals, temporarily throwing a wrench into the Juan Soto negotiations. The Padres/Nats Soto blockbuster was completed anyhow, sans Hosmer, and Hosmer is now heading to Boston instead.

It’s a fairly stunning sequence of events, but the Red Sox will take advantage of San Diego’s willingness to pay the freight on Hosmer’s underwater contract and take a low-cost look at a former All-Star who’ll help solidify a position of need in the lineup. Boston has been pairing Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec at first base for much of the season, often to disastrous results, and Hosmer should shore up some of the miscues that have become common in the Boston infield. Defensive metrics have never agreed with Hosmer’s four Gold Glove Awards, but even still, he gives the Sox a more solid option than Cordero, who’s made eight errors and been rated five outs below average in just 316 innings (per Statcast) while trying to learn first base on the fly in the Major Leagues.

Bringing Hosmer into the fold in many ways serves as a roadblock to top prospect Triston Casas, though the Sox could certainly have the two split time between first base and designated hitter. It does figure to tamp down rumblings of Rafael Devers eventually moving across the diamond from third base to first base, however, as Hosmer is now penciled in as the primary option at first for the next several seasons.

Hosmer, a former All-Star and 2015 World Series champion, is in the fifth season of an eight-year, $144MM contract signed with the Padres prior to the 2018 season. The deal was near-universally panned at the time of signing and fell into albatross territory almost immediately. Hosmer hit a combined .259/.316/.412 through his first 1344 plate appearances in San Diego — about six percent worse than league-average over that span by measure of wRC+ (which, notably, weights for league context like the juiced-ball season in 2019).

To Hosmer’s credit, his offense has improved a bit over the past three seasons. As leaguewide production has trended downward following the 2019 homer boom, Hosmer has maintained a .273/.336/.411 batting line from 2020-22, which clocks in about seven percent better than average.

That’s still not what the Friars had in mind when signing him to a frontloaded eight-year deal with an $18MM annual value, of course, and Hosmer’s tepid production has pushed the Friars to explore trades for him for more than a year now. In the past, the goal was to find a taker for Hosmer and the bulk of his contract — likely by attaching him to a top prospect — but things have now reached the point where the Padres are simply willing to eat a notable portion of the contract to free up the roster spot for a more productive hitter in Josh Bell, who was acquired alongside Soto.

In order to rid themselves of said albatross, they have parted with Rosier and Ferguson, whom Boston will acquire in exchange for taking Hosmer off the Padres’ hands. Rosier, 22, was a 12th round pick in last year’s draft. The outfielder had a sparkling debut in A-ball last year, hitting .390/.461/.585 along with 13 steals. This year, moving up to High-A, he’s hitting .263/.381/.396 with 33 swipes. Ferguson, 22, is an infielder who was selected in the fifth round last year. He’s split his time this year between A-ball and High-A, slashing .221/.365/.358.

While the Padres have long wanted to be rid of Hosmer’s contract for financial reasons, it seems they eventually gave up on those dreams, since they are eating effectively all of his contract. The club flirted with the luxury tax line all year, seemingly unwilling to cross it. However, the opportunity to get superstar players like Soto, Bell and Josh Hader seemed to be an opportunity too good to pass up, with the club now certain to pay the luxury tax for a second straight season.

Instead of financial relief, the Padres will receive a former first round pick, as Groome was selected 12th overall by the Red Sox in 2016. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the sport once upon a time, with Groome landing at #43 in 2017 and #83 in 2018. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season and limited him to just four innings in 2019. That was followed by the pandemic wiping out the minor league seasons in 2020, meaning Groome hardly pitched at all for three straight seasons. He returned to the mound last year, pitching to a 4.81 ERA between High-A and Double-A. He’s shown improved results this year, however, throwing 92 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.59 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate, though a high walk rate of 11.4%. He’ll add some pitching depth for the Padres, who just lost MacKenzie Gore in the Soto deal.

Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported that Hosmer was headed to Boston. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first noted that Hosmer’s no-trade list didn’t include the Red Sox. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported that this would be a multi-player deal and that Rosier and Ferguson would be included (Twitter links). Robert Murray of FanSided first had Groome’s involvement. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported that the Padres are sending about $44MM to the Red Sox.

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