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Cardinals Extend Paul Goldschmidt

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10:17am: Goldschmidt will earn $26MM per season from 2020-24, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (Twitter link).

TODAY, 8:04am: The deal is done, and the Cardinals will officially make the announcement at a press conference this morning, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports (Twitter link).

THURSDAY: The Cardinals are closing in on an extension with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If he passes a physical, Goldschmidt will remain a Cardinal for five additional seasons at a price of $130MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter), thus setting a new contractual record for the storied St. Louis franchise.

Goldschmidt is already slated to earn $14.5MM in 2019, the final season of the extension he signed earlier in his career. With five new seasons tacked on, he’ll now be under contract through the 2024 season. The new deal will afford Goldschmidt full no-trade protection but will not include any opt-out opportunities, Rosenthal tweets.

The Cards are now set to accomplish what they set out to do when they acquired Goldschmidt earlier this winter. The club made no secret of its desire to hammer out a long-term arrangement with its new first bagger. Indeed, achieving exclusive negotiating rights likely motivated the St. Louis organization to part with starter Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young and a Competitive Balance Round B selection to land Goldy in the first place.

Getting the deal done now means that both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt (along with his representatives at Excel Sports Management) need not think about alternatives next winter. It surely would have been interesting to see how the star performed on the open market. It’s hardly an optimal time for a defensively limited slugger to reach the open market. The Chris Davis deal (seven years, $161MM) is scarcely three years old, but seems a relic in retrospect. We’ve seen a steady reduction in earning expectations for such players in recent years. Still, significant money has still been there for the very best players. J.D. Martinez took down $110MM over five years despite profiling as a DH. Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion each commanded $20MM annual salaries over three-year terms. And first bagger Eric Hosmer — a much younger but lighter-hitting first baseman — went for eight years and $144MM.

There’s an argument to be made that Goldschmidt could have earned more on the open market. He’d have faced little competition at the top of the first base market outside of the older Jose Abreu, though there are a few notable other players available next winter. But it’s frankly difficult to argue with the decision to sign onto this contract, particularly with another year of health and performance risk still separating Goldschmidt from free agency. The Cards obviously were quite fond of their new acquisition — and, perhaps, felt no small amount of pressure to get something done. It’s no small achievement in this climate for a first baseman to secure a $26MM AAV over a five-year term that begins in his age-32 season.

Goldschmidt, of course, is no ordinary first baseman. Comparing him to his peers at first base, in fact, isn’t quite the right scope. Over the past three years — that is, not including his personal-best 2015 campaign — Goldy has been among the dozen top position players by measure of fWAR. He’s in a dead heat with Freddie Freeman and Joey Votto in that regard. Now, he’ll join that pair of star performers in securing a large and lengthy contract extension.

While the Cardinals haven’t had much time to watch Goldschmidt up close, he really doesn’t have much of anything to prove. Somehow only an eighth-round draft pick back in 2009, Goldschmidt has been an offensive sensation ever since he reached the professional ranks. He destroyed minor-league pitching while racing to the majors, showing well in his 2011 debut. Thereafter, he emerged as one of the game’s best hitters and has rarely wavered from that standard.

All told, Goldschmidt carries a .297/.398/.532 slash (144 wRC+) through 4,708 plate appearances. That’s more or less exactly what he posted last year, when he ran up 690 plate appearances of .290/.389/.533 hitting with 33 long balls. Goldschmidt didn’t have his best showing in terms of plate discipline, but his 13.0% walk rate and 25.1% strikeout rate were hardly problematic and largely reflect his career levels. He continued to sting the ball, with a career-best 46.2% hard-contact rate (per Fangraphs), though he also made soft contact with greater frequency (16.9%) than ever before.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cardinals To Select Matt Wieters, Designate Chasen Shreve

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Matt Wieters has officially made the Cardinals’ roster as the backup to Yadier Molina, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Wieters, who signed a minor league deal in February, will have his contract selected, and the Cardinals will designate left-hander Chasen Shreve for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.

Meanwhile, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets that outfielder Tyler O’Neill and right-hander Mike Mayers have both been informed they’ve made the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster as well.

Wieters, 32, has been beset by injuries in recent seasons as his offensive output has slowly deteriorated. The once-vaunted prospect and three-time All-Star most notably had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and also underwent hamstring surgery last season. He’s also missed time due to an oblique injury in recent years, and over the past three seasons he’s compiled a pedestrian .235/.303/.376 batting line.

Even that modest output from Wieters is worlds better than the Cards received from their backup catchers in 2018, however. Francisco Pena totaled 142 plate appearances but mustered a bleak .203/.239/.271 slash, while the since-traded Carson Kelly looked overmatched in a minuscule sample of 42 PAs as he hit .114/.205/.114. Pena also struggled with both framing and throwing out runners in 2018, so Wieters should present a definitive upgrade, even if he’s no longer a premier player at his position.

Shreve, 28, will ultimately pitch just 14 2/3 innings in a Cardinals uniform. The southpaw came to St. Louis in what now looks to be a remarkably regrettable trade with the Yankees, as Luke Voit burst onto the scene in New York late in the 2018 campaign and batted .333/.405/.689 with 14 home runs in 148 PAs down the stretch.

While some regression for Voit is inevitable, Shreve’s time with the Cardinals all but certain to end with today’s DFA. He has enough service time to reject an outright assignment even if he clears waivers. The Cardinals and Shreve had agreed to a $900K salary earlier this winter, avoiding arbitration, and the team will now at least save the majority of that sum with today’s move; Shreve will be owed 45 days of his salary as termination pay — a sum of about $218K. (The Cardinals, it should be noted, do still have 27-year-old reliever Giovanny Gallegos on the 40-man roster as part of their return for Voit.)

Over the past four seasons, Shreve has posted a solid 3.85 ERA and missed bats (10.3 K/9), but he’s also been far too prone to walks (4.7 BB/9) and home runs (1.8 HR/9) for either the Yankees or Cardinals to deem him a reliable bullpen option. Furthermore, he’s not a candidate for a more specialized role, as left-handed opponents have been even more successful against Shreve (.248/.335/.444) than right-handed opponents have been (.222/.316/.430).

With Shreve no longer in consideration for a bullpen role, it appears likely that Tyler Webb will open the season as the second left-hander behind Andrew Miller in manager Mike Shildt’s bullpen. Brett Cecil is expected to open the 2019 season on the injured list.

The out-of-options Mayers needed to either make the Opening Day roster or be designated for assignment. O’Neill has minor league options remaining but will make the club as a bench option behind Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler for the time being. It’s not difficult to envision the slugger eventually playing his way into a larger role, though Fowler (as with Cecil) seems likely to get a chance at redemption due to his sizable contract.

Wacha Not Dwelling On Contract Status

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  • Michael Wacha is very cognizant of the fact that this could be his final Spring Training with the Cardinals, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A free agent after the season, Wacha has already watched the Cardinals extend teammate Miles Mikolas (on a four-year, $68MM deal). Wacha called the contract “awesome” for Mikolas adding that his teammate is a “stud pitcher and great off the field.” As far as his own contract status, however, Wacha stressed the importance of not getting caught up in that sort of thing with the season approaching. The 2012 first-rounder was limited to 84 1/3 innings last season due to an oblique injury, but he was sharp when on the field, working to a 3.20 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9 and a 43.2 percent grounder rate. He’ll be the youngest established starter available in free agency next winter, so a healthy season is particularly crucial.

NL Roster/Health Notes: Taylor, Verdugo, Cecil, Romano, Kennedy

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The Nationals are suddenly facing a potential roster gap in the outfield, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports. Michael Taylor tweaked his knee today and is slated to be looked at more closely tomorrow. With Howie Kendrick also in limbo, both of the club’s right-handed-hitting reserve outfield pieces could be out of commission to open the season. Lefty hitter Andrew Stevenson is the only other 40-man outfielder. Perhaps there’s a chance that the Nats will look to the free agent market — Austin Jackson seems the closest match to Taylor as a right-handed-hitting center fielder — or consider claiming a late-spring roster casualty to boost their depth.

Here are a few more roster notes from around the game:

  • The Dodgers expect to carry Alex Verdugo on the MLB roster to open the year, manager Dave Roberts says (via Pedro Moura of The Athletic, on Twitter). After spending two seasons at Triple-A, where he owns a healthy .321/.389/.452 slash, Verdugo certainly deserves a shot. It remains to be seen how he and others will actually be utilized. As things stand, Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger are also available as left-handed-hitting outfield options, though perhaps some roster tweaking could still occur.
  • Cardinals lefty Brett Cecil pitched in an instrasquad game today and threw more balls (15) than strikes (12) in his latest shaky outing, according to Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. This spring has been a trial for the veteran reliever, who’s still trying to find himself on the mound after losing a bunch of weight following a brutal 2018 season. Command and velocity are both problems at the moment, as Frederickson’s colleague Derrick Goold recently explored.
  • Right-hander Sal Romano, who has spent the vast majority of his career as a starter, will be converted into a relief role for the Reds moving forward, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. He’ll still be stretched out to the point where he can be relied upon for two- and three-inning relief appearances if needed, though. Unlike some other Reds roster hopefuls, Romano has a minor league option remaining, so it’s possible he’ll continue to acclimate to his new role at the Triple-A level before getting a look the big league ’pen. Romano, who turned 25 this offseason, has long rated as one of the more intriguing arms in the Cincinnati system but hasn’t found MLB success yet. In 232 2/3 innings, he’s mustered just a 4.99 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 — including a 5.31 ERA in 145 2/3 innings of work last year. Making it into the Reds’ rotation would’ve been challenging anyhow, as offseason acquisitions Sonny Gray, Alex Wood and Tanner Roark are expected to join holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani to round out the starting five.
  • Padres right-hander Brett Kennedy has been diagnosed with a lat strain, per James Clark of the East Village Times (Twitter link). The expectation is that he’ll be sidelined for about a month. Kennedy, 24, scuffled last year in his first six MLB appearances and wasn’t expected to command a big league job out of camp. But he posted impressive results in 2018 at Triple-A, with 89 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball over 16 starts, and is certainly part of the depth picture in San Diego.

Latest On Carlos Martinez

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  • The Cardinals now have a plan in place for right-hander Carlos Martinez, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (Twitter link), to bring him through some shoulder weakness. Martinez will “build up arm strength” with a throwing program over the next two weeks. At that point — just on the cusp of the season — the team will decide how to complete his preparation for the season. It’s still possible, from the club’s perspective at least, that Martinez will be on a program designed to deliver him to the MLB pen. As of late last month, that was not a path he wanted to take.

Latest On Cardinals’ Rotation Plans

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Entering camp, the expectation was that Carlos Martinez would regain his standing as a member of the Cardinals’ starting five. That may ultimately come to pass, though he’ll first need to work back to full strength. In Martinez’s absence, Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets, the Cards will utilize either John Gant or Dakota Hudson to round out the rotation.

Gant, 26, is one of several out-of-options Cardinals hurlers. He pitched to a 3.47 ERA last year in 114 frames over 19 starts and seven relief appearances. The results came in spite of a marginal combination of 7.5 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 with a 45.1% groundball rate. Gant’s success was driven largely by suppression of home runs (0.71 per nine) and batting average on balls in play (.253), the sustainability of which is questionable. If he’s not in the rotation, Gant will either need to find a landing spot in the bullpen or be exposed to waivers.

Options abound for Hudson, a 24-year-old former first-round pick. He could begin the season as the fifth big-league starter, take a job in the MLB pen, or stay stretched out in the Triple-A rotation. In 19 starts last year at the highest level of the minors, Hudson worked to a 2.50 ERA over 111 2/3 innings with 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a hefty 57.5% groundball rate. The worm-burners kept coming during his 26-appearance foray into the Cards pen. Though he managed only 19 strikeouts against 18 walks in his first 27 1/3 MLB frames, Hudson allowed nary a home run. That’s no fluke; Hudson has permitted only eight long balls in over three hundred professional innings pitched.

Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon are other 40-man members that might have been seen as possibilities. Each started MLB contests last year but has evidently already been ruled out of the Opening Day rotation race. As the news further suggests, hugely talented youngster Alex Reyes is also out of the mix to open the season as a starter. But that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily be optioned at the end of camp. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets, manager Mike Shildt says that Reyes will be considered for a relief post. Reyes, 24, is working back from significant shoulder and elbow surgeries and will surely face innings limitations.

Notable Pre-Arb Salaries: Bregman, Flaherty, Hicks, Ohtani

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The Rays decided over the weekend to renew the contract of reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell for just $573,700, highlighting the less-than-satisfying manner in which pre-arbitration players’ salaries are determined. As we noted in that post, other similarly accomplished players have been paid quite a bit more by their respective teams. The collectively bargained system leaves full discretion with clubs to set salaries for those players that are not yet eligible for arbitration, subject only to a floor (currently $555K). A few players have landed in the $1MM range, though that is the exception rather than the rule. Approaches vary widely from team to team. Whatever one thinks about the fairness of that minimum salary level, it’s rather a bizarre system.

Here are some other notable recent pre-arb salary outcomes:

  • The Astros renewed star third bagger Alex Bregman for $640,500, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. That’s a bargain rate for one of the game’s best young position players, who says he’s “disappointed” in how things turned out. Bregman explained: “I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I’m just disappointed it doesn’t seem like the same amount of want.” GM Jeff Luhnow defended the decision in part by pointing to the fact that it’s “one of the top ten” pre-arb salaries ever awarded. “I know it’s not satisfying because he’s a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them,” said Luhnow. “That’s just the nature of our industry right now.”
  • Over in Cardinals camp, there are a few other players who are surely less than thrilled with how things turned out. Righties Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were each renewed, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The former was renewed at $562,100 — $10K less than the team offered him, reflecting a $10K reduction for his decision not to sign on the dotted line. Flaherty decline to criticize the team, saying that “their process is great and it makes sense,” but says “the system as a whole is not great.”
  • Meanwhile, the Angels managed to reach agreement with AL Rookie of the Year recipient Shohei Ohtani, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ohtani has over than a year less service time than Bregman but will out-earn him at $650K. The ROY hardware certainly didn’t hurt and Ohtani is unquestionably a unique case — and not just because of his two-way contributions. The Halos originally landed Ohtani — Japan’s biggest star and the most fascinating international player ever to cross the Pacific — for a bonus of just over $2.3MM since he chose to come over while still subject to collectively bargained international signing caps. Ohtani’s will be a pre-arb earner one more time in 2020 before qualifying for arbitration.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, Flaherty, Hicks

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  • Retirement is hardly imminent for 36-year-old Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’d like to play at least one more season with the team after his current contract runs out. Molina’s signed through 2020, which will be his 16th season and a year in which he’ll pass Bob Gibson to become the second-longest tenured player in the Cardinals’ storied history. However, while Molina wants to make it to at least Year 17, the potential Hall of Famer has no interest in overstaying his welcome in the majors. “I don’t want to retire when I hit .190 and I can’t throw anybody out at second,” said Molina, who batted .261 and caught 31 percent of would-be base stealers in 2018. When Molina finally does close out his playing career, don’t expect him to become the latest ex-catcher to become a big league manager, as he tells Hummel he’s uninterested in going down that road.
  • Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty, 23, was among the best young starters in baseball last season, when he recorded a 3.34 ERA/3.86 FIP with 10.85 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 across 151 innings. As a pre-arbitration player, though, Flaherty won’t earn a salary commensurate with his 2018 production. The Cardinals renewed Flaherty for just over the $555K minimum – $562,100 – after they were unable to reach an agreement with him, Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch reports. The club first offered Flaherty $572,100, but he wasn’t willing to accept that sum, per Goold, who writes that the team determines a pre-arb player’s worth with “essentially a weighted Wins Above Replacement that takes into account service time.” Flaherty racked up 2.6 WAR in 2018, while reliever Jordan Hicks – who also wasn’t able to agree to a 2019 salary with the Cardinals – totaled 0.3. Hicks, like Flaherty, will earn less this year than the team initially offered him, though it’s unclear exactly how much he’ll make, per Goold. While neither player harbors ill feelings against the Cardinals, Flaherty contends that “the system as a whole is not great.” It’s hard to argue with him, especially given that reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is also in line for a near-minimum salary this season.

Martinez 5-7 Days From Throwing; Gyorko Sidelined Up To A Week

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  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez is still another five to seven days away from even being able to throw. Meanwhile, a calf strain will sideline utility infielder Jedd Gyorko for about a week. Martinez has been slowed by shoulder weakness this spring and already received a platelet-rich plasma injection, though a timetable on his readiness for game activity will remain murky until the team can see how he responds to throwing. There’s been talk of him working as a reliever in 2019, as he did late in the 2018 season. Meanwhile, Gyorko figures to be a key backup all around the infield. A longer-than-expected absence for him would open more playing time for Yairo Munoz early in the season.

Pena Injury Could Open Door For Wieters

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  • The competition to serve as the Cardinals’ backup to catcher Yadier Molina may have gained further clarity Tuesday, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that Francisco Pena will be sidelined for the next 10 to 15 days due to an apparent oblique injury. It’s awful timing for Pena, who looked like the primary choice to serve as Molina’s backup until the Cardinals signed Matt Wieters to a minor league contract last week. Now, with Pena ailing, Wieters looks all the more likely to secure a roster spot with the Cards come Opening Day. While Pena would be the stronger defensive option of the two, even Wieters’ diminished offensive production in recent seasons dwarfs that of Pena; in 271 plate appearances last season, Wieters slashed .238/.330/.374 to Pena’s .203/.239/.271 (142 PAs).

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