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Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

Cardinals Acquire Austin Dean

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The Marlins announced Tuesday that they’ve traded outfielder Austin Dean to the Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Diowill Burgos. Dean was designated for assignment in Miami last week. Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio reported Dean was on his way to St. Louis shortly before the deal was announced. The Cardinals’ 40-man roster is now up to a total of 39 players.

Dean, 26, will replenish some of the right-handed-hitting outfield depth the Cardinals lost last week when trading Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays. While Dean has yet to find much in the way of big league success, he’s a career .331/.398/.546 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons and has generally handled left-handed pitching well. He still has two minor league option years remaining as well, so the Cards can shuttle him between Memphis and St. Louis as they see fit in the short term.

Burgos won’t turn 19 until later this month. He’s played in the Dominican Summer League in each of the past two seasons and moved up to the Gulf Coast League late in 2019. Overall, the Dominican native is a .263/.366/.475 hitter with 17 home runs, 24 doubles, seven triples and 10 steals in 493 professional plate appearances. He’s still years from being anywhere near the big leagues, but he’ll add an intriguing option to the lower ranks of the Miami farm system moving forward.

Cardinals’ Talks For Arenado “Haven’t Gone Anywhere”

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1:30pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that while the Rockies and Cardinals have indeed exchanged some names, their talks on Arenado “haven’t gone anywhere” and the exchange of names “hasn’t been productive.”

11:29am: The Rockies and Cardinals “have begun exchanging names” of players of interest as they attempt to structure a potential deal that would send third baseman Nolan Arenado to St. Louis, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. The Colorado organization is said to want both MLB and minor-league players to move their franchise cornerstone.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of this latest update. On the one had, it’s presented as a step forward. Morosi reported over the weekend that the sides had struck up “preliminary trade negotiations.” He now states that the chatter has “advanced beyond a preliminary stage.”

On the other, it seems hard to imagine that the sides had really been engaged in dialogue of much substance if no names of players other than Arenado even came up. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently explained, the Cards have had “longstanding interest” in Arenado but have “found the Rockies’ asking price prohibitive.” So, it would appear the sides are only now returning to a level of discussion at which they’ve previously engaged without seeing eye to eye.

The real question here remains how motivated the Rockies are about taking advantage of the opportunity to move Arenado’s contract and get something in return. If so, then perhaps it is indeed notable that they are back to swapping possible names with the Cards. It’s obviously not the Rockies’ preference to move their biggest star, but there’s huge risk in holding pat given the roster’s 2019 backslide and a slate of contractual commitments that is straining the payroll that the organization has established.

Morosi does go on to name a few names, though again it is not clear how the information is best interpreted. The Rox have both interest and some misgivings in Dakota Hudson, says Morosi, who echoes Goold’s characterization of the Cards being utterly unwilling to discuss Jack Flaherty. In addition to contemplating Hudson, who certainly has his warts but also has thrown over 200 MLB innings of 3.25 ERA ball and won’t turn 26 until September, the Rox are said to be eyeing up the Cards’ top prospects as well.

This is where the skepticism really enters the picture, because that’s quite a haul of talent. Arenado is obviously well worth it from an on-field perspective, but his contract — which, as already written to death, gives him huge downside protection ($234MM guaranteed) with the upside of opting out after 2021 — is less than a straightforward asset to price. It would be a bit odd to see the Cardinals part with that kind of surplus value for the right to take over such a deal, particularly since the team wasn’t notably connected to free agent Anthony Rendon.

Morosi’s report takes a curious turn when he gets to Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter. While the highly compensated veteran is said to be under consideration in talks, Morosi writes that “the Rockies don’t appear to be mandating his inclusion.” That’s a befuddling way to characterize a 34-year-old player who just wrapped up a subpar season and is owed a hefty $39MM over the next two years (including a buyout on an option). Clearly, the Rox would rather not have that contract; Carpenter would be included to help offset the Arenado obligations.

Once more, it’s tough to know what to make of that curious bit. There’s no chance the Rockies are clamoring for Carpenter, but it’s equally true that the club wouldn’t want the deal to seem publicly like a salary dump. So, perhaps this strained characterization constitutes evidence that the Colorado organization is preparing to sell an all-but-assuredly unpopular trade to a skeptical fan base. Or maybe that’s just reading into things.

Two things seem safe to say at this point: First, that there are reasonably serious discussions involving Arenado, with the Cardinals at least one of the teams engaged with the Rockies. (The Rangers and perhaps others are also seemingly still at least kicking around the periphery.) And second, that there remain a number of significant obstacles that must still be cleared to move an Arenado trade scenario from the realm of hypothetical plausibility to one approaching actualization.

Latest On Cardinals, Nolan Arenado

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  • The Rockies and Cardinals have engaged in preliminary negotiations centering on Rox superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has been on St. Louis’ radar for years. They’ve held talks with Colorado “at least dating back” to December 2018, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays. A few months later, the Rockies extended Arenado for seven years and $234MM on a deal that will kick in this season. That money, not to mention Arenado’s no-trade rights and his ability to opt out after 2021, could help prevent an acquisition from materializing for the Cardinals or anyone else. The Cards haven’t been willing to meet the Rockies’ asking price for Arenado in the past, per Goold, though it’s unclear what Colorado asked for in return. Now, as you’d expect, Goold notes that the Cardinals are unwilling to trade young ace Jack Flaherty and also seem unlikely to part with high-end outfield prospect Dylan Carlson.

Cardinals, Rockies Have Reportedly Engaged In Preliminary Arenado Talks

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The Cardinals and Rockies have recently engaged in “preliminary trade negotiations” regarding Nolan Arenado, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi characterizes the Redbirds as “a viable suitor” for the five-time All-Star.

Of course, a deal coming to fruition is far from certain. Indeed, just yesterday, we heard that a St. Louis acquisition of Arenado was unlikely. That the sides are talking could give Cardinals’ fans cause for hope, but it’s hardly proof anything will get across the finish line. Teams surely engage in preliminary negotiations on any number of scenarios without ultimately completing the deal all the time.

Just how far these talks between Colorado and St. Louis have yet progressed isn’t clear. The Cardinals are intent on adding an impact position player this offseason, Morosi notes, although a re-signing of free agent Marcell Ozuna could fill that void. Morosi adds that Dakota Hudson could be a central figure in Arenado talks, although that seems more speculative than a definitive report that Colorado is intent on acquiring the 25-year-old sinkerballer.

As Morosi notes, an Arenado deal would be difficult to pull off, whether for the Cardinals or another suitor. Arenado is due $234MM over the next seven years on the extension he signed last February. That’d be a huge commitment for any acquiring team, but it’s hardly unreasonable for a player of his caliber. Anthony Rendon signed for $245MM over the same term this offseason. While Rendon has been marginally better than Arenado over the past few seasons, the Rockies’ star is a year younger.

More difficult to navigate are Arenado’s full no-trade clause and post-2021 opt-out clause. Arenado has in the past been vocal about his desire to compete, and Morosi notes he admires the Cardinals’ franchise history and has a strong rapport with Paul Goldschmidt. It thus seems feasible he’d be willing to waive the no-trade clause, particularly if the Rockies pivot to a large-scale rebuild. It should be noted, however, Arenado himself has not addressed the no-trade clause publicly.

The opt-out clause poses a greater challenge. Suitors figure to be understandably reluctant to part with the kind of young talent Colorado would surely require for their franchise player if they fear he’ll depart after 2021. (Of course, if Arenado were to not exercise his opt-out in two years’ time, it’s probably an indicator he couldn’t beat the hefty $164MM he’s currently due from 2022-26 on the open market). Morosi reports that St. Louis could explore attempting to convince Arenado to waive his opt-out clause (particularly by guaranteeing him more money), but there’s hardly any indication he’d be willing to do so.

Arenado will surely remain one of the game’s most notable trade candidates unless a deal ultimately comes to fruition. Whether St. Louis or any other team can overcome the numerous hurdles to a deal is one of the offseason’s most fascinating storylines.

Castellanos A Better Fit Than Ozuna For Cards?

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There hasn’t been many rumblings linking Nicholas Castellanos to the Cardinals this offseason, though one rival executive suggests to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) that Castellanos would be a better answer to the Cards’ outfield needs than Marcell Ozuna.  We’ve addressed the Castellanos/Ozuna debate ourselves in a recent Free Agent Faceoff, though from the executive’s standpoint, Castellanos is preferable for St. Louis since he isn’t attached to any draft pick compensation.  If the Cards were to re-sign Ozuna, they’d miss out on the compensatory draft pick they are slated to receive if he signed elsewhere, since Ozuna rejected the qualifying offer.  Signing Castellanos, however, would both upgrade the St. Louis outfield and still leave the Cardinals in line for the extra pick.

On the flip side, the Cards’ apparent lack of interest in Castellanos may signal that they simply prefer Ozuna, who is both a comparable talent and is a more known quantity to the Cardinals’ staff and front office.  Recent reports suggest that the Cards, Reds, and Rangers are all still in the mix for Ozuna, while Texas also has some interest in Castellanos, but perhaps only as a first baseman.  Along with Josh Donaldson, Castellanos and Ozuna are the headliners of a rapidly-depleted free agent crop as we approach the middle of January, and it will be interesting to see which clubs (perhaps a known suitor or a mystery team) wind up with these big bats.

Cards Notes: Wieters, Arenado, Carpenter

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The Cardinals and Athletics were first linked to Matt Wieters during the Winter Meetings, and a month after those initial reports, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that St. Louis and Oakland continue to have interest in the veteran backstop.  Wieters served as the Cards’ backup catcher last season, hitting .214/.268/.435 with 11 home runs over 183 plate appearances and 67 games — perhaps more playing time than was expected, given that workhorse Yadier Molina was limited to 113 games due to thumb injuries.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes (Twitter link) that the Cardinals have an offer out to Wieters and are hopeful of a reunion, to the point that a locker has been kept open for Wieters.  The A’s would also be looking to use Wieters as a backup catcher behind promising youngster Sean Murphy, though Wieters could potentially have a larger role if Murphy were to struggle in his first full MLB season.

  • Nolan Arenado has been frequently mentioned as a trade possibility for the Cardinals, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch feels a potential deal with the Rockies “probably won’t” happen.  Roadblocks include Arenado’s contract, which is both expensive and contains an opt-out clause after the 2021 season.  While Arenado is a clear upgrade over virtually any other third baseman in the game and Matt Carpenter is coming off a rough 2019 campaign, Carpenter’s presence as the Cards’ in-house third base option further complicates matters since Carpenter is unlikely to carry much trade value.  In terms of moving him to another position, Paul Goldschmidt has first base covered, and Frederickson writes that “the team has thoroughly dismissed the notion of Carpenter spending time in the outfield again.”

Rangel Ravelo Drew Interest From KBO, Will Remain With Cards

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  • Cardinals outfielder/infielder Rangel Ravelo drew interest from a Korea Baseball Organization club earlier this offseason, but he’s staying put, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. The 27-year-old Ravelo debuted in the majors last season, though he only collected 43 plate appearances and batted an unimposing .205/.256/.410. Nevertheless, the Cardinals are bullish enough on Ravelo that he has a legitimate chance to crack their 26-man roster this year, Goold suggests.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Latest On Marcell Ozuna

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Free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna has seemingly identified his top two remaining suitors. Ozuna suggested to Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 (hat tip to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale) that he’s deciding between his latest team, the Cardinals, and the Rangers. He indicated that the Cardinals are his preferred choice.

The 29-year-old Ozuna is coming off a solid two-season run in St. Louis, which acquired him from Miami entering 2018. Ozuna was then fresh off a 5.0-fWAR season with the Marlins. He wasn’t as effective as a Cardinal, but he did post a pair of productive years with the club. Ozuna put up 2.6 fWAR in 2019, when he slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a career-high 12 stolen bases over 549 plate appearances.

On the heels of Ozuna’s quality showing last season, the Cardinals began the winter by issuing him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he rejected. But it has been difficult to find another obvious suitor since then for Ozuna, and the Cardinals did just weaken their outfield depth by trading Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have recently been connected to Ozuna and the other most prominent free-agent outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos. It seems the club has some leeriness in regards to the long-maligned defensive abilities of Castellanos, whom it apparently views as more of an infielder than an outfielder. But there’s no doubt that Ozuna’s an outfielder, and he’d fill the Rangers’ need in the grass in the wake of their Nomar Mazara trade with the White Sox. However, one of the big questions is whether the Rangers will pony up for Ozuna, who – along with forcing the team to cough up a substantial amount of money – would cost them their second-highest draft pick in 2020 because he turned down a QO.

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