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Pirates Outright Pablo Reyes

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The Pirates have outrighted infielder/outfielder Pablo Reyes to Triple-A Indianapolis, per Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The club designated Reyes for assignment on Jan. 9. Reyes hasn’t been outrighted previously, nor does he have the necessary service time to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, so he’ll stick with the Pittsburgh organization.

Now 26 years old, Reyes debuted at the major league level with the Pirates in 2018 and posted an impressive .293/.349/.483 line with three home runs in 63 plate appearances. Last year didn’t go nearly as well for Reyes, though, as he slumped to a .203/.274/.322 mark with two homers and minus-0.5 fWAR across 157 PA.

While 2019 was a rough go at the plate for Reyes, he did show off quite a bit of defensive versatility for the Bucs. Reyes lined up at every infield position but first base and saw action at all three outfield spots. And Reyes turned in his second straight productive campaign in Indianapolis, where he has slashed .288/.341/.471 with 18 HRs and 18 steals over 589 PA since 2018.

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..

Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.

Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.

Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”

Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.

The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/12/20

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Catching up on some minor moves from around baseball….

  • The Pirates officially announced that utilityman Jake Elmore has been re-signed to a minor league contract and has received an invitation to the team’s big league Spring Training camp.  (Multiple reports initially had word on this deal between Elmore and the Bucs last month.)  Elmore appeared in 20 games with Pittsburgh last season, marking his first MLB action since the 2016 season played in 59 games for Milwaukee.  Elmore’s career Major League resume consists of 217 games spread over six different seasons with six different teams, and the 32-year-old has a career .215/.292/.275 slash line.  Versatility has been a much bigger part of Elmore’s game than his bat, as he has appeared in at least one game at all ten positions during his career, with the majority of his playing time coming at shortstop, left field, first base, and second base.

Pirates Could Add Third Baseman

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  • The Pirates have shown “at least modest interest in the third-base market,” Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. It seems adding a stopgap to help serve as a bridge to the Ke’Bryan Hayes era is possible. Speculatively, the likes of Brock Holt (a former Pirate whom new general manager Ben Cherington knows from Boston), Todd Frazier, Matt Duffy and Logan Forsythe are among the types who could interest Pittsburgh. But at least a couple of those players were no better in 2019 than incumbent starter Colin Moran, who was merely a replacement-level player across 503 plate appearances.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
  • Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
  • The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
  • The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
  • The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
  • Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
  • The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
  • Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
  • Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
  • The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
  • Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.

Earlier Settlements

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Pirates, John Ryan Murphy Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed catcher John Ryan Murphy to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s represented by ISE Baseball.

Murphy, 28, spent the bulk of the 2019 season with the D-backs, although he finished out the year with a brief stint in the Braves organization. He’s a light-hitting backstop who’s generally considered to be among the game’s premier options in terms of pitch framing. Murphy was once considered a solid catching prospect with the Yankees and Twins, but to this point in his career he’s managed only a .219/.265/.357 batting line through 674 plate appearances. He hit well, particularly relative to other catchers, up through the Double-A level but owns a tepid .244/.306/.380 line through parts of five Triple-A seasons.

Pittsburgh’s catching mix is fairly open at the moment. Jacob Stallings is the favorite to handle starting duties after posting a respectable batting line and playing strong defense in 2019. Luke Maile joined the organization as a free agent and was given a 40-man roster spot, placing him in line to serve as the backup to Stallings. Murphy, though, will provide some competition for Maile (a high-end framer himself) and can otherwise serve as an experienced depth option in the upper minors if he’s unable to break camp with the team.

Pirates Designate Pablo Reyes For Assignment

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The Pirates have designated utilityman Pablo Reyes for assignment, the club announced.  The move creates roster space for Guillermo Heredia, whose one-year deal with the Bucs is now official.

Over his 89 career games as a Major Leaguer since the start of the 2018 season, Reyes has already played multiple games at all three outfield positions, second base, third base, and shortstop.  The bulk of that work has come as a corner outfielder, though Reyes’ versatility is a nice boost for a player who has yet to hit much at the MLB level — just a .229/.295/.368 slash line and five home runs over 220 plate appearances.

The 26-year-old Reyes has displayed more pop at the minor league level, hitting .278/.351/.421 over 2587 PA in Pittsburgh’s farm system.  This includes an .885 OPS over 191 PA at Triple-A Indianapolis last season, though as with many minor leaguers in 2019, it’s hard to tell if the increased numbers indicate genuine progress on Reyes’ part.  (The Triple-A level as a whole experienced an untold offensive surge after adopting the MLB baseball.)  Between Reyes’ raw numbers and his value as a utility player, however, there’s a chance another team might be interest in plucking him away from Pittsburgh on the waiver wire.

Pirates Sign Guillermo Heredia

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5:03PM: The Pirates officially announced the signing.

1:24PM: The Pirates have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Guillermo Heredia, as first reported by Francys Romero of Los Mayores (Twitter link). It’s a Major League deal, MLB.com’s Adam Berry adds. Heredia is represented by Magnus Sports.

The 28-year-old Heredia was with the Rays in 2019 and spent the three prior seasons with Seattle. He’s seen action in 382 big league games and batted a combined .240/.317/.342 with 17 homers, 46 doubles, a triple and six stolen bases in 1101 plate appearances. While Heredia’s overall profile isn’t exactly eye-catching, he’s been a solid producer against left-handed pitching, hitting at a .274/.335/.401 clip in 487 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage (including a sharp .281/.339/.456 slash in 2019).

Heredia is capable of handling all three outfield spots, and while he doesn’t have plus marks for his work in center field, both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved feel he’s a strong defender in either corner slot. Despite playing in only a part-time role and being shuffled between the Majors and Triple-A, Heredia ranks 21st among 565 big league outfielders with 19 Outs Above Average dating back to 2016, per Statcast.

The Rays non-tendered Heredia back in December despite a rather timid $1.1MM projected salary in arbitration. He has three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that the Pirates can control him via arbitration all the way through 2022 should they see fit. Just how he fits into the club’s outfield picture is largely dependent on the fate of Starling Marte, for whom the organization is listening to trade offers.

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Bell

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Josh Bell established himself as a formidable power hitter just in time for his platform year, leading into his first time through the arbitration process. The first baseman hit 37 home runs and knocked in 116 while batting .277—all career highs. Despite being a far less productive hitter prior to 2019, Bell still accumulated some decent career numbers as well thanks to playing full-time for three consecutive seasons. He totaled 78 home runs and 287 RBIs, along with a .265 average. My model projects Bell to earn $5.9 million his first time through arbitration.

The model does not explicitly pick comparables when generating its projection, but it will logically place Bell near some of his most similar hitters while compensating for some salary inflation. Bell’s arbitration case is pretty well-established—he is a hitter who had an elite power year in his platform with solid but non-elite performance prior to that.

Ideally, a comparable player is somebody who plays the same position. But looking for hitters who already play first base full-time before reaching arbitration is challenging.

Chris Carter had similar power numbers when he entered arbitration in 2015, but a far inferior batting average and was also a DH for most of his platform season. He earned $4.18MM after hitting 37 home runs and knocking in 88 his platform season, a totaling 85 HR and 216 RBI in his career. But his platform batting average was only .227 and his career average was .222. This is obviously a likely floor for Bell, who five years later has bested Carter in each of these categories.

Wil Myers obviously played a few positions by the time he entered arbitration in 2017, but commonly played first base. He hit .259 with 28 home runs and 94 runs batted in during his platform year, but stole 28 bases. He only hit 55 home runs in his career though, far less than Bell’s 78. So Myers’ $4.5MM salary seems likely to be low as well.

If we expand to other positions on the diamond, I can find four other infielders in the last five years who hit at least 30 home runs in their platform year and batted at least .250, but did not have 90 home runs in their career, putting them in a similar position to Bell. Each of the four players earned between $5.0MM and $5.2MM and has similarities to Bell.

Last season, Javier Baez entered arbitration with a .290/34/111 platform but stole 21 bases, and had .267/81/269 career numbers to go along with 49 steals. The numbers are certainly similar to Bell, if a little bit better, and Baez plays a harder position. Baez’s $5.2 million could be a benchmark for determining Bell’s 2020 earnings.

Trevor Story also had a similar case going into last season, with a .291/37/108 line in his platform year, and a .268/88/262 line for his career. Story plays a harder position and steals bases at a regular clip as well—27 in his platform year. Story’s $5.0MM could also be a solid benchmark for Bell.

Going back to 2016, we also find a couple third basemen with similar batting numbers to Bell. Both Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado got $5.0MM. Machado hit .286/35/86 platform and .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. Machado had stolen 20 bases in his platform as well. Both arguably had better cases than Bell, but being four years old, these cases are a bit stale.

I think that the model could be a little high on Bell, projecting him for $5.9MM when he may land closer to $5.0MM. It is clear that he should outearn other recent first basemen who got salaries in the low-to-mid $4MM range, but not clear enough that some of the 3B and SS who earned $5.0MM to $5.2MM have weaker cases at all. Salary inflation could push him past them, but I suspect he will land right around $5 million.

Pirates Hiring Ex-Astros Staffer Ocampo, Says Report

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  • Former Astros international scouting director, special assistant and major league interpreter Oz Ocampo is joining the Pirates’ front office under new general manager Ben Cherington, in what the baseball man called a return to his “scouting roots” in a Twitter post relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (link). In addition to his tenure with the Astros, Ocampo has also spent time working under Kim Ng at the MLB office.

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