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Justin Wilson Trade Rumors: Thursday

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Justin Wilson has been among the most talked-about assets on the trade market, and the sheer volume of updates on the expansive market for his services is enough to warrant its own dedicated post with the deadline looming. Here’s the latest on the Tigers southpaw, who currently boasts a 2.75 ERA with 12.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent ground-ball rate…

  • The Yankees have joined the pursuit of Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It was New York that traded Wilson to the Tigers in the first place (for righties Chad Green and Luis Cessa), and while the Yanks have already beefed up their ’pen with the additions of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, they appear further interested in adding a shutdown lefty. The Tigers, though, are aiming extremely high in talks for Wilson, with Fenech suggesting that they’re seeking an Aroldis Chapman -esque return for Wilson. While the 29-year-old Wilson is earning a bargain $2.7MM salary and can be controlled through 2018 via arbitration, that’s still a sky-high ask. The Cubs sent Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren and Rashad Crawford to New York in exchange for Chapman last summer.
  • The Astros could be the most focused team on Tigers southpaw Justin Wilson, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Wilson has leapfrogged Orioles closer Zach Britton on the Astros’ list of targets, though all indications are that the ask on Wilson is extremely high. Houston is hardly alone in its pursuit of Wilson and has yet to definitively separate itself from the pack, however, per Crasnick (Twitter links). There are at least six teams still in on Wilson, with the Nationals “strongly” in the mix. Lastly, Crasnick tweets that the odds of a package deal sending Wilson and Justin Verlander to a team “are not good” due to the complex nature of such negotiations.
  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that the Brewers, Astros and Red Sox were recently considered to be the leaders in the Wilson sweepstakes, though others are in on him as well. Heyman lists the Cubs, Rockies, D-backs, Dodgers and Nationals as other potential landing spots in a trade.

Latest On Sonny Gray

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9:33am: Rosenthal now tweets that the Nationals are not, in fact, in on either Gray or Rangers ace Yu Darvish. Rather, the team might simply elect to pursue another reliever to further boost the back of the bullpen.

12:00am: Earlier tonight, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that rival clubs believe that most teams have informed the Athletics which centerpieces they’re willing to part with in a potential trade for right-hander with Sonny Gray, adding that the Yankees are believed to be the front-runners. According to Sherman, many expect that the A’s will deal Gray before this Sunday’s scheduled start against the Twins.

Though the Yankees are the perceived front-runner, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that both the Nationals and Mariners have some interest in Gray, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Mariners and A’s haven’t touched base on Gray in about a week, though multiple rivals from around the game believe that ever-active GM Jerry Dipoto will find a way to make a competitive bid despite a thin farm system.

Rosenthal outlines a speculative scenario in which the M’s could pair a big league outfielder with top prospect Kyle Lewis (among other pieces), then pivot to acquire a new corner outfielder in what is currently a buyers’ market for short-term corner bats. (Rosenthal’s column has multiple quotes on Dipoto’s whirlwind style of trading, including one unnamed exec opining: “I don’t think he’s burning [the farm system] to the ground. I think he knows it’s already on fire and is trying to do what he can with the assets he has.” It’s well worth a full look.)

As for the Nats, Rosenthal reports that a deal could hinge on whether the Nats would part with prized prospect Victor Robles in a deal (Twitter links). Some in the Nationals’ organization now value fellow outfield prospect Juan Soto over Robles, though that hardly suggests that Washington has soured on Robles or given up on him in any way.

Sherman suggests that one factor working in favor of the Yankees is that some believe the Astros to be the team most willing to roll the dice on Orioles’ closer Zach Britton, which could take some of their focus off Gray. Sherman notes that the Astros do still have some trepidation about the various red flags surrounding Britton this year (injuries, lack of appearances on consecutive days, etc.). Houston GM Jeff Luhnow again emphasized to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick today, however, that he doesn’t feel obligated to overpay for any addition given the team’s significant lead in the American League West. “We have a pretty good team, and if we can improve it without giving up too much of our future, we will,” said Luhnow.

Jeff Samardzija Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause

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Jeff Samardzija’s name has come up frequently in recent trade rumors, but the 32-year-old right-hander’s five-year, $90MM contract allows him to block trades to all but eight teams. Moreover, Samardzija tells Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that if approached by the Giants about a trade to one of the teams over which he has veto power, he wouldn’t be interested in waiving the clause.

“I love being here,” said Samardzija shortly after praising the Giants’ core players and suggesting that the team fully believes it can turn the tide next season. Samardzija smiled yesterday when telling Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he “[doesn’t] remember” the eight teams to which he can be traded without his approval (Twitter link), but Baggarly now reports the full list in a separate column.

According to Baggarly, Samardzija can be traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Athletics and Nationals without his consent. All other teams — including the Astros, who have been the team most frequently connected to Samardzija on the rumor circuit — require Samardzija’s consent, and it doesn’t sound like he’s interested in green-lighting any proposals.

Samardzija is owed $18MM annually and has struggled in the estimation of traditional metrics this season. He’s sporting a 5-11 record with a 4.85 ERA, but most other statistical means of evaluation are rather bullish on the righty. He’s averaging 9.7 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9, both of which would be the best marks of his career, and leading the Majors in K/BB ratio. His 43.3 percent ground-ball rate is only a tick below average, and he’s inducing more swings at pitches out of the strike zone than he ever has before. Samardzija’s fastball velocity has also held strong at an average of just over 94 mph, and he’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start. Metrics like FIP (3.49), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28 prior to today’s strong outing) all view him much more favorably than earned run average.

Samardzija has struggled with men on base, in part due to the fact that he’s one of many pitchers throughout the league that has seen his HR/9 rate and HR/FB ratio spike as balls are leaving the yard at a higher rate than ever before in MLB history. And while his durability and K/BB numbers are impressive, some teams will no doubt express some skepticism that Samardzija would be able to better keep the ball in the yard by vacating the spacious AT&T Park as his home stadium. The remaining money on his contract also figures to be a concern to come clubs, as he represents a fairly sizable commitment to those that are near the luxury tax threshold.

All of that sounds to be mostly a moot point anyhow. Among the teams to which Samardzija can be moved, the Red Sox don’t seem likely to pursue a starter, while the Mets and A’s aren’t contending. The Angels are a fringe contender at best and have luxury tax concerns, while the Nationals are said to be more focused on relievers and may shy away from the money remaining on his deal. It’s at least possible that one of the other teams listed shows some interest, but the Yankees are presently focused on Sonny Gray, while the Cubs have already added Jose Quintana and the Dodgers have been most heavily linked to Yu Darvish (to say nothing of the longstanding Dodgers/Giants division rivalry).

Astros Outright Ashur Tolliver

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The Astros outrighted left-handed reliever Ashur Tolliver off the 40-man roster earlier today, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. The Astros have yet to formally announce the move and have not announced a corresponding move.

An offseason waiver claim from the Angels organization, the 29-year-old Tolliver appeared in just three big league games and totaled five innings with the Astros in 2017. Tolliver has had a rough go of it in Triple-A Fresno this season, allowing 25 earned runs on 32 hits and 29 walks with 22 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. That’s a notable departure from a 2016 campaign in which Tolliver logged a 2.23 ERA with 10.2 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 through 44 1/3 frames across three minor league levels.

Tolliver was originally drafted by the Orioles in the fifth round 2009, one pick before the Giants took Brandon Belt.

Jeff Luhnow On Astros' Deadline Plans

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  • In an interview with Astros Radio (hat tip to MLB.com’s Christian Boutwell), GM Jeff Luhnow said that his team’s deadline plans have changed thanks to Collin McHugh returning from the DL and Dallas Keuchel also expected to soon get back in action.  “We were thinking we may have [to] go out and get a depth starter — a fourth, fifth starter guy to help us get through the season,” Luhnow said.  “That’s no longer the case.  If anything, we’ve going to have to put guys in the bullpen.”  Of course, Houston has been linked to bigger names than just back-of-the-rotation types, as names like Sonny Gray, Jaime Garcia and Justin Verlander have been mentioned in connection with the Astros’ trade talks.  Luhnow added that the ’Stros are still open to pursuing other options that may help them in the postseason, which could hint at pouncing on a bigger name if a good deal becomes available.

Astros Interested In Jaime Garcia

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9:32am: Teams besides the Twins are still talking to the Braves about Garcia, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  It isn’t known who the other clubs in the mix are, though earlier today, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that the Astros and Royals were two of the the teams that had previously shown interest in Garcia.  Kansas City, however, now appears to be more focused on acquiring a right-handed starter.

Astros Rumors: Gray, Fisher

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  • The Astros appeared to be making a serious push for Athletics righty Sonny Gray at one point this week, but they’re not aggressively involved in the sweepstakes for the 27-year-old right now, according to Rosenthal (FanRag’s Jon Heyman issued a similar report Thursday). Given the recent success of starters Mike Fiers and Brad Peacock, Houston could pursue an elite reliever instead of another piece for its rotation, suggests Rosenthal, who adds that prospect Derek Fisher will likely take over in left field next month if the team doesn’t trade him. Baseball America’s 54th-ranked prospect, the 23-year-old has slashed .311/.380/.584 with 21 home runs and 16 steals across 375 Triple-A plate appearances this season. Fisher got his first taste of big league action last month and swatted two homers in just 21 trips to the plate.

Collin McHugh To Make 2017 Debut

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Astros righty Collin McHugh will make his 2017 big-league debut in a start against the Orioles, the Astros have announced. McHugh had missed the entire season to this point with shoulder trouble. Before 2017, McHugh had an impressive three-year run in Houston in which he posted a 3.71 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 543 innings. His return improves an Astros rotation that also currently features Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, Mike Fiers and Brad Peacock. Dallas Keuchel is now on a rehab assignment after heading to the DL with neck discomfort in early June. Here’s more out of Texas.

  • The impending returns of McHugh and Keuchel don’t mean the Astros are out of the market for rotation help, however. Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the team watched Rangers star Yu Darvish pitch yesterday. The team is keeping tabs on all significant potential rotation additions, Morosi adds. Darvish has lately been connected to a variety of teams, including the Dodgers and Cubs.

Latest On Sonny Gray

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6:25pm: Houston may actually be setting its sights elsewhere at the moment, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Indeed, he says it’s not even clear if the sides are engaged presently in “serious talks.”

He adds that the Athletics have “named their price” on Gray with the Yankees. While there’s no indication that those two clubs are near to a deal, that certainly suggests it’s still an open situation.

10:28am: Trade talks between the Astros and Athletics pertaining to Sonny Gray are “heating up,” according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). Morosi adds that while Houston is in talks with the A’s, the Astros are also maintaining interest in trying to work out a deal that would net both Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson from the Tigers.

Rumors connecting the Astros to Gray date back to the offseason and have been persistent throughout the regular season. The Astros’ roster lacks a clear need, though most reports indicate that if they’re to make a splash, it’d be for someone that could step into the postseason rotation. Gray certainly fits that bill, as he’s rebounded from a triceps injury in 2016 and a lat strain earlier this season to look more and more like his old self in recent months.

Over the past two months, Gray has made 11 starts and totaled 68 1/3 innings with 9.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 54.9 percent ground-ball rate. The resulting 3.56 ERA is solid but appears unspectacular, however the Athletics have also backed Gray with one of baseball’s worst defenses. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.87) and xFIP (3.12) are much more bullish. It’s also worth noting that Gray’s past month has been especially impressive, as he’s posted a 1.62 ERA in his past 33 1/3 innings across five starts.

If talks with the Athletics do come to a head, the Astros will be getting a boost not only for their 2017 postseason chances but also through the 2019 season. Gray is earning just $3.575MM in 2017 — a slight silver lining resulting from last year’s injury troubles — and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before hitting the open market in the 2019-20 offseason. He’d slot into the Houston rotation behind 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and righty Lance McCullers, who are controlled through 2018 and 2021, respectively.

The talks for Verlander and Wilson are another story entirely, as the hurdles involved with a potential Verlander trade have been well documented by this point. The 34-year-old Verlander is having a down season with more than $65MM owed to him through the 2019 season, and he also has a full no-trade clause that would allow him to veto any deal. The Tigers wouldn’t be able to both shed Verlander’s salary and command a significant prospect return for him, and given his status as an icon in Detroit, it’d be a tough sell to the fans to simply move him to shed his contract.

Adding Wilson to the talks would obviously sweeten the pot and could allow the Detroit front office to extract a more lucrative return, though they could potentially do better simply by trading Wilson in a standalone deal. Interest in the dominant setup-man-turned-closer has been extremely strong this month, and he stands out as Detroit’s best trade chip. Unlike J.D. Martinez, an excellent player that nonetheless commanded a lukewarm return due to a lack of a market for his services, more than a third of the league could conceivably have legitimately strong interest in Wilson.

Brewers Have Interest In Justin Verlander

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The Brewers have interest in Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter links). Milwaukee has been linked on multiple occasions to rotation pieces that it can control beyond the 2017 season, though there’s yet to be much of a serious connection to the longtime Detroit ace. Notably, Fenech adds that the Cubs are still monitoring Verlander and further reports that while the Astros have interest, their involvement in talks “has been minimal.”

Milwaukee is currently trailing the division-rival Pirates in today’s game and has seen its lead on the NL Central dwindle to 1.5 games with both the Cubs and Pirates on winning streaks. The Brewers have had a top-heavy rotation for much of the season, and that only became a truer statement when Chase Anderson, their second-best starter in 2017, landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain that is likely to sideline him into the month of August.

The obstacles standing in the way of a Verlander trade (to any club) are notable. Verlander is owed about $67MM through the end of the 2019 season and has a full no-trade clause that allows him to veto any trade scenario with which the Tigers approach him. He’s also in the midst of one of his worst big league seasons, although he’s been sharper over his past three outings, which may at least present scouts with some confidence that he’s rounding into form.

Whether that’s enough of a sample to convince any team — let alone a fairly low-payroll club like the Brewers — to take on a significant chunk of his remaining contract remains to be seen. The Tigers are reportedly willing to include “some” cash in a trade to help enhance the return they’d get, but they’d likely have to pay down a major chunk of the contract in order to both find a taker and receive meaningful prospects in return. The Brewers have a fairly clean slate when it comes to their long-term payroll outlook, with only Ryan Braun and Eric Thames on guaranteed contracts beyond the current season, but they do have quite a few important players up for arbitration raises this winter (including Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez and Carlos Torres).

While it’s certainly possible that there’s some gamesmanship at play here — it’d behoove the Tigers to play up the interest of two closely competing division rivals, after all — the Brewers have been linked to controllable rotation help frequently enough that it’d almost be a surprise if they didn’t check in on the Verlander market and gauge the asking price. As for the Cubs, they’ve already acquired Jose Quintana from the White Sox, but there have been indications since that time that they’re still on the lookout for pitching help, and for a team with considerable payroll capacity and questions in their long-term rotation, the notion of acquiring Verlander and having some of his $28MM salary in 2018-19 offset undoubtedly holds appeal.

The Astros were said, as of this morning, to still be in the market for Verlander, though there have also been reports that talks between Houston and Oakland regarding Sonny Gray have begun to intensify. The Brewers and Astros have both also been linked to Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, meanwhile, as each team looks to upgrade its bullpen.

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