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Postseason Field Is Set

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With a hectic final day of play in the books, the 2020 playoff field is officially set – which visual learners can view here from MLB Network. The defending World Series champion Nationals and their newly-crowned batting champion Juan Soto will watch from home.  The Mets and Phillies turned in disappointing seasons, while the Marlins stunned their NL East counterparts to enter the postseason as the #6 seed in the National League. The Braves weathered a line change in their starting rotation to win their third consecutive NL East title.

Elsewhere in the National League, Dodgers are the team to beat, while the Padres are the team to watch. The Rockies and Diamondbacks will face some hard questions in the offseason after disappointing years, while the Giants exceeded expectations but narrowly missed the postseason.

The Central makes up half the playoff field in the National League with everyone but the Pirates continuing into MLB’s second season. The Cubs took home their third division title in five seasons behind stellar years from Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks, but it was a difficult season for many of their core offensive players. They were also the only team in the majors to go the entire season without a single player testing positive for COVID-19, per NBC Sports Chicago and others. The Cardinals will be the #5 seed after playing two fewer games than the rest of the league, Trevor Bauer led the Reds back to the postseason by winning the NL ERA title (in a free agent year no less), and the Brewers backed into the NL’s #8 seed without ever being above .500 in 2020.

In the American League, small markets had themselves a year. The A’s took the AL West back from the defending AL champion Astros. Speaking of, Houston finished a tumultuous year without their ace Justin Verlander. Manager Dusty Baker will lead his fifth different team to the postseason, this one joining the Brewers as one of two under-.500 teams to reach the postseason. The Angels will reboot after firing their GM earlier today, while the Rangers and Mariners continue their rebuilds.

The Rays, meanwhile, won the AL East for the first time in a decade and they’re the top seed in the American League. The Yankees settle for second place and the Blue Jays arrive to the postseason a little earlier than expected as the AL’s #8 seed. The Red Sox took an expected step back, while the Orioles performed better than expected, staying in the playoff hunt for most of the season.

The Twins lost in extras today, but they nonetheless secured their second consecutive AL Central title. Shane Bieber put up a potentially MVP season to get the Indians back to the playoffs. The White Sox arrived in a major way led by Tim Anderson and Jose Abre. Only a late season slide kept them from a division crown. They’ll head to Oakland as the #7 seed. The Tigers debuted a number of players they hope will be a part of their next competitive team, while the Royals said goodbye to a franchise icon in Alex Gordon’s final season.

It was a short and bizarre season, but the playoffs – while expanded – aren’t going to be all that different from most years. There will be neutral sites and a wild card round of 3-game series, and playoff bubbles, but once the field is pared down to eight, it’s more or less business as usual for the postseason. It should be an exciting month of October.

Here’s the final field of 16:

National League

(8) Brewers at (1) Dodgers

(5) Cardinals at (4) Padres

(6) Marlins at (3) Cubs

(7) Reds at (2) Braves

American League

(8) Blue Jays at (1) Rays

(5) Yankees at (4) Indians

(6) Astros at (3) Twins

(7) White Sox at (2) A’s

The playoffs begin on Tuesday, September 29.

Ryan Pressly Reaches Vesting Threshold For 2022 Option

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Ryan Pressly reached the vesting threshold for a $10MM option in 2022, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). For the option to fully vest, Pressly needs to appear in 60 games in both 2020 and 2021. This season’s appearances are prorated because of the shortened season, however, meaning he needed 23 appearances to reach the equivalent of 60 over a full year. Pressly’s one-inning outing on Friday night was his 23rd of the season.

Pressly has been a huge part of the Astros’ bullpen over their current run, which includes 4 consecutive postseason appearances and counting. Since joining Houston via trade from the Twins on July 27, 2018, Pressly has posted a 2.19 ERA/2.42 FIP across 104 appearances out of the Houston bullpen. He was particularly effective down the stretch after joining the Astros in 2018. His first 26 appearances resulted in a 0.77 ERA to finish out that 2018 season.

This season he stepped into a new role for Houston, serving as its closer for much of the year. The Astros lost Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Josh James, and Brad Peacock from their bullpen over the course of the season. Pressly has stepped in ably to record 12 saves in 16 opportunities while finishing 15 games. He’s thrown 21 innings in total with 12.43 K/9 to 3.00 BB/9.

The 31-year-old is on the books for $8.75MM next season. If he stays healthy, it’s certainly likely he’ll reach that 60 games threshold to lock in a $10MM salary for 2022. That said, any injury could deprive him of enough opportunities to hit that mark. He made just 55 appearances in 2019 for the Astros, though he twice spent time on the injured list, including missing a month from late August to late September. He has twice reached 60 appearances in a season prior to this year (2016, 2018).

The Astros books are pretty clear for 2022 as of right now. Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., Osuna, Devenski, and Carlos Correa are all set to be free agents after the 2021 season. Only Jose Altuve ($29MM) and Alex Bregman ($13MM) are currently owed significant sums for 2022. Clearly, lots can change before then and at least a few of the Astros’ potential free agents are likely to sign back. Regardless, if Pressly continues to pitch as he has, $10MM would not be an exorbitant price to pay, nor would the contract be immovable should that be their preference.

Hunter Pence Announces Retirement

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Longtime big league outfielder Hunter Pence announced he’s retiring from baseball (Twitter link). This brings to an end a fourteen-year career spent with four teams, although he’ll surely be remembered most for his time with the Giants.

Pence originally broke into pro ball in 2004, selected by the Astros in the second round out of the University of Texas-Arlington. Notably “awkward and unorthodox” as a prospect, in the words of Baseball America, Pence nevertheless played himself into top prospect status by 2007. He broke into the big leagues with a bang, hitting .322/.360/.539 en route to a third place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year voting that season. Pence continually produced over his time in Houston, earning his first two All-Star nods there, before the struggling Astros shipped him off to the Phillies at the 2011 trade deadline for four prospects.

He continued to perform well in Philadelphia, hitting .289/.357/.486 over parts of two seasons, but the Phillies lost in the Division Series in 2011 and were en route to a playoff miss in 2012. Pence again headlined a deadline deal, this one sending him to San Francisco. His midseason acquirer fared much better the second time around, as the Giants erased a pair of big playoff deficits against the Reds and Cardinals before sweeping the Tigers in the 2012 World Series.

Set to reach free agency after the 2013 season, Pence instead re-upped with the Giants that September. Already a highly productive and popular player, that extension set the stage for Pence to become permanently identified with the San Francisco organization. He combined for a .280/.335/.464 line between 2013-14, garnering down ballot MVP support each year. He was perhaps even more instrumental in the Giants’ 2014 World Series run than he’d been in 2012, going 12-27 with a home run in San Francisco’s seven-game triumph over the Royals.

Of course, it wasn’t simply Pence’s productivity that made him so revered, both among diehard Giants’ loyalists and many baseball fans generally. He played with an endearing energy and exuberance. Coupled with his oft-awkward hitting mechanics and general lack of gracefulness on the diamond, Pence brought something of an everyman feel to the sport that resonated with outside observers, teammates and coaches.

Unfortunately, that high-energy style of play caught up to him in his 30’s. After 2014, Pence only once again managed to exceed 110 games in a season. He continued to produce when healthy up through 2016, but he seemingly hit a wall thereafter. Pence struggled through a pair of poor years with the 2017-18 Giants, seemingly ending his time with the organization (and putting his career in jeopardy).

Forced to settle for a minor-league deal with his hometown Rangers entering 2019, Pence remade his swing at age 36. He rebounded to post a .297/.358/.552 line over 316 plate appearances in Texas last year, picking up his fourth and final All-Star trip in the process. That also inspired the Giants to offer a major league deal last winter, setting the stage for a tremendous return story.

Unfortunately, that was not to be. Pence got off to an abysmal start and was released after just 56 plate appearances. That’ll mark his last work in the big leagues, although it’s fitting that his final games came in the orange and black.

All told, Pence will hang up the spikes with a .279/.334/.461 line over 7006 plate appearances, good for a 115 wRC+. He hit 244 home runs, 324 doubles and 55 triples, while stealing 120 bases. Pence was worth around 31 wins above replacement, in the estimation of both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. He’s obviously most notable for being an integral part of two World Series winners in San Francisco and for the infectious joy he spread to teammates and fans alike. MLBTR congratulates Pence on a stellar career and wishes him the best in retirement.

Roberto Osuna Resumes Throwing

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  • Astros’ closer Roberto Osuna has progressed to throwing, per GM James Click (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Osuna was seemingly ticketed for a Tommy John surgery after going down with an elbow injury earlier, although the reliever instead elected to rehab and attempt to return this season. The likelihood of that happening isn’t clear, but it’s generally encouraging to hear that he’s throwing again.

Justin Verlander To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Justin Verlander announced (via his Instagram page) that he will undergo Tommy John surgery.  As per the normal timeline for TJ recovery, Verlander will miss the entire 2021 season.

The right-hander’s full statement…

After consulting with several of the best doctors, it has become clear that I need Tommy John surgery.  I was hopeful that I would be able to return to competition in 2020, however, during my simulated game unfortunately the injury worsened.  Obviously I’m extremely disappointed, but I will not let this slow down my aspirations for my career.  I will approach this rehab the only way I know, attack and don’t look back.  I’m confident that with a proper rehabilitation program and my unwavering commitment that this surgery will ultimately lengthen my career as opposed to shorten it.  I can’t thank my teammates, coaches, the front office and my fans enough for the support they have given me so far in this process.  I’m eager to get through this recovery and back on the field to continue to do what I love.

Verlander started the Astros’ first game of the season and then was placed on the injured list due to a forearm strain.  After some initial speculation that the injury would be season-ending, there was hope that Verlander was nearing a return to Houston’s rotation before the end of the schedule, and that he would be available for the team in the playoffs.  Unfortunately, it now seems like we won’t see Verlander back on a mound until Opening Day 2022 at the earliest.

Given that Verlander will be 39 years old at that point, there is at least a chance that we have already seen the last pitch of his Hall Of Fame career.  There isn’t a long track record of pitchers rebounding after such a notable surgery at that advanced age, though on the plus side for Verlander, he has been the picture of durability over his career.  Apart from a triceps strain that cost him two months of the 2015 season, Verlander has been virtually free of any major injury, so he could theoretically have a better chance at a full recovery and a return to form than most pitchers in their late 30’s.

Verlander has already done better than most in holding off Father Time, as he is coming off two of his best seasons.  At ages 35 and 36 during the 2018-19 seasons, Verlander posted a cumulative 2.55 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 7.47 K/BB rate over 437 innings for Houston, leading the league in both K/BB and WHIP in both years.  After finishing second in AL Cy Young voting in 2018, Verlander edged out then-teammate Gerrit Cole to win the award in 2019, eight seasons after Verlander’s initial Cy Young Award triumph (as well as an AL MVP Award) with the Tigers in 2011.

The Astros signed Verlander to a two-year, $66MM extension prior to the 2019 season, and that deal certainly looked all the world like a sound investment in the wake of Verlander’s Cy Young year.  However, both years of that contract have now been wiped out thanks to his forearm problem, and it is possible Verlander’s time in Houston could now be up.

It’s a major blow to an Astros team that already has $115MM committed to the 2021 season in the form of only four players — Verlander, Zack Greinke, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman.  With George Springer, Michael Brantley, and Yuli Gurriel all scheduled for free agency this winter, GM James Click faces some significant financial decisions, and the Astros’ overall direction is now severely complicated with the knowledge that Verlander won’t be a factor in 2021.  While Houston has gotten some nice contributions from younger arms like Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez, obviously the pitching staff is much deeper and stronger with Verlander teaming with Greinke at the top of the rotation.

Injury Notes: JV, McCullers, Hoskins, Moronta, Chafin

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Justin Verlander has continued to progress in his late-season comeback effort, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic writes. The veteran hurler isn’t yet ready to return to the Astros rotation, of course, but he has now faced live hitters in a two-inning sim game. It’s still unclear how things will progress from here. The club would surely like to get JV a regular-season appearance before the season concludes, but it’s also possible he’d make his first start in the postseason. Meanwhile, the ’Stros have now welcomed back fellow right-hander Lance McCullers from his own stay on the injured list, as Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to tweet. It turned out to be a brief stay for McCullers, who had a procedure to relieve neck nerve irritation. He’ll look to improve upon a 5.79 ERA through his first eight outings.

Here are some more injury notes from around the league …

  • Phillies first bagger Rhys Hoskins is still in limbo as he deals with an elbow/foream issue. As Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports on Twitter, the burly slugger is holding out hope of a return even while the threat of a season-ending surgery hangs over his head. When and how this situation will be resolved isn’t yet clear. Losing Hoskins would represent a big dent to the Phils’ lineup. He has to this point of the season turned in a productive .245/.384/.503 slash line with ten long balls.
  • It seems the Giants could yet get a bullpen boost from right-hander Reyes Moronta. He’s ready for competitive mound action at the team’s alternate training site, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area notes on Twitter. Moronta has been building up after undergoing shoulder surgery, so the club won’t want to push him too hard. But it’s enticing to imagine adding another postseason weapon, particularly since Moronta is said to be showing typically strong velocity. Jeff Samardzija is also nearing readiness, with a five-inning set scheduled. It’s unclear what role may await for the veteran once he’s deemed a full go. He coughed up 15 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his first three starts on the year.
  • The Cubs haven’t yet received a contribution from recently acquired southpaw Andrew Chafin, but that may soon change. The 30-year-old reliever, who was nursing a finger sprain when he was dealt at the trade deadline, is close enough that he could be activated over the next few days, skipper David Ross indicated to reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). Chafin had struggled to open the year in Arizona, but he’d represent a notable addition to a bullpen that has had its share of issues, especially from the left side.

Chris Devenski Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Astros right-hander Chris Devenski underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow yesterday, the team announced Wednesday. The recovery time on the procedure is expected to be about four months.

Devenski, 29, has struggled over the past few seasons, but from 2016-17, “The Dragon” was a major piece of Houston’s bullpen. In that time, he worked a combined 189 innings with a 2.38 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9 and a 35.9 percent ground-ball rate. He posted a swinging-strike rate better than 15 percent over that two-year stretch, including a gaudy 16.9 percent in a 2017 campaign that saw him punch out 31.6 percent of the hitters he faced.

Since Opening Day 2018, however, Devenski has a 4.88 ERA in 120 frames. He’s still averaging 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in that time, but his walk rate has ticked up slightly, his velocity has dipped, and he’s become vastly more prone to home runs (1.73 HR/9). Devenski managed just 3 2/3 innings in 2020 and was tagged for six runs on seven hits and three walks in that brief sample.

Heading into the offseason, Devenski will be at somewhat of a crossroads. His $2MM salary in 2020 was hardly outrageous, and his limited body of work this year means he’s unlikely to receive much of a raise — if any at all. Still, every club will be looking to trim some payroll where possible (to varying extents). Devenski’s late elbow procedure and his downward trend in 2018-20 will make him a non-tender candidate, particularly given that he’s only controllable through the 2021 season right now at present anyhow.

Astros Activate Jose Altuve

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The Astros have activated second baseman Jose Altuve from the 10-day injured list and optioned right-hander Humberto Castellanos, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets. Altuve’s batting second in the Astros’ lineup against the Rangers on Tuesday.

Altuve went on the IL on Sept. 5 with a sprained right knee, continuing a trend of recent problems in the joint for the former MVP. He also underwent surgery on that knee after the 2018 season. Of course, the problems don’t seem nearly as serious this time, as Altuve is back after spending the minimum amount of time on the shelf.

The hope for Houston, which is a disappointing 23-24 and clinging to a playoff spot, is that Altuve will serve as a key late-season reinforcement. Altuve, for his part, is surely trying to end the season with a flourish after struggling before his absence. The 30-year-old’s a five-time .300 hitter and a three-time 2o-home run man, but he has slashed just .224/.284/.322 with three homers through 155 plate appearances this season. The Astros turned to Aledmys Diaz and Jack Mayfield at the keystone when Altuve was out, but they’ve also logged underwhelming production this year.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr.

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With nine losses in their past 11 games, the reigning American League champion Astros have fallen under .500 (23-24) and find themselves fighting for their playoff lives. The Astros have gone almost the whole year without 2019 AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, which certainly hasn’t helped matters, but they’re hoping to get him back for a start in the final week of the regular season, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relays.

Verlander, who’s recovering from a forearm strain, threw 55-60 pitches Saturday and will soon face live hitters, which is a “very, very positive sign,” according to manager Dusty Baker.

In Baker’s estimation, no matter how late in the campaign, a Verlander return would be like a major late-season acquisition. Baker’s not wrong in that regard, as Verlander has long been an elite starter and could help decide whether the Astros make the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season or sit home in the fall.

Without Verlander, who has only taken the mound once (on July 24), the Astros’ formerly elite rotation has been a middle-of-the-pack unit. Zack Greinke and Framber Valdez have posted far better field-independent pitching numbers than ERAs; on the other hand, the opposite has been true for Cristian Javier; Jose Urquidy has only made two starts; and Lance McCullers Jr. logged a 5.79 ERA before going on the injured list Sept. 6 with neck problems. Like Verlander, though, McCullers is on his way back, per McTaggart, who writes that he’ll return to the team’s rotation Wednesday.

Lance McCullers Jr. To Return On Wednesday

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  • Speaking of returning starters, the Astros listed Lance McCullers Jr. as the starter for Wednesday’s game against the Rangers, indicating that the right-hander’s time on the injured list is nearing an end.  McCullers hit the 10-day IL on September 6 due to neck nerve irritation, a rather concerning-sounding issue that left a return date up in the air.  After taking an anti-inflammatory injection, however, McCullers now seems on track to get back on the mound after only a minimal IL stint.  The former first-rounder has a 5.79 ERA over eight starts and 37 1/3 innings this season, though the Astros will surely welcome whatever McCullers can contribute to a rotation mix that has managed middle-of-the-pack numbers despite multiple injuries.
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