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Quick Hits: Verlander, Draft Scouting, Moore

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Justin Verlander is the latest player to contribute towards the COVID-19 relief effort, as the Astros ace and his wife Kate Upton announced (via Twitter) that Verlander’s weekly paycheck will be donated to a different organization every week.  “We’ll also be highlighting the organization that we choose so that that everyone can see the amazing work they’re doing right now,” Upton said.  As per the terms of the recent agreement between the MLB Players Association and Major League Baseball, Verlander is part of the group of players (who have reached salary arbitration or are on guaranteed contracts) that will receive roughly $5K per day in both April and May.  Now, all of the money Verlander receives from those payments will go to a variety of worthy causes.

Some more from around the baseball world…

  • Major League scouts will soon be permitted to contact prospects for the 2020 draft and the 2020-21 international signing period (as well as the prospects’ families and advisers) beginning next week, CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson writes.  MLB halted all scouting activities as part of the league-wide shutdown in March, and any sort of in-person workouts or meetings are still banned.  ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel reports that teams are also not permitted to view any video footage of such workout sessions that took place after March 27.  That said, teams can gather data and video on players (from third parties or from the prospects’ representatives) prior to that date, and also contact the prospects’ teams by phone, e-mail, or any other type of indirect method.  With some rough plans now in place for a shortened 2020 draft, teams will now have some avenues to gain fresher information on players they might wish to select.  The amateur draft will now take place in July, while the next international signing period (originally scheduled to open on July 2) could be pushed back as far as January.
  • The 2020 season was already going to be a new experience for Matt Moore after the left-hander signed with Nippon Professional Baseball’s SoftBank Hawks, though the coronavirus pandemic has created an extra layer of unexpected adversity.  Moore talks to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about the differences and similarities between playing and living in Japan as opposed to the majors, his offseason courtship from SoftBank that included a private workout for the team, and how playing for the Hawks marks something of a return.  Moore spent four years living in Japan as a child when his father was transferred to a U.S. Air Force base in Okinawa.

Transaction Retrospection: Elvis Andrus’ Extension

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Contract extensions have been a key part of Jon Daniels’ team-building strategy over his 14+ years as the Rangers’ general manager, and the richest of those extensions was completed seven years ago today.  Elvis Andrus agreed to an eight-year, $120MM contract that also contains a $15MM vesting option for the 2023 season.

The new deal began with the 2015 season, which would have been Andrus’ first free agent year.  Andrus was already signed to a previous extension — a three-year/$14.4MM pact for the 2012-14 seasons, which were Andrus’ three arbitration years — and thus Texas needed to make a sizeable investment to keep Andrus off the open market.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of the deal, “Scott Boras has managed to secure the largest extension ever for a shortstop in terms of new money,” which was perhaps a necessary step given that Boras usually advises his clients to test free agency.  (In fact, the Andrus deal has been cited for years as one of the relatively few examples of a Boras Corporation client signing a long-term extension that covers free agent seasons.)

At the time of the deal, it’s quite possible the Rangers felt they would ultimately be on the hook for only the first four years (and $62MM) of the extension.  Andrus had opt-out clauses after both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and as deep as a week into the 2018 campaign, he looked like a strong candidate to exercise that first clause given his improved offensive production in 2016-17.  However, a fractured elbow cost Andrus two months of the 2018 season and he never really got on track after the injury, thus informing his decision to stick with Texas in 2019.

Last season, Andrus just flat-out struggled, hitting .275/.313/393 (76 wRC+, 78 OPS+) over 648 PA, with a career-low 5.2% walk rate and a major lack of quality contact, as per his Statcast numbers.  In the wake of that poor season, Andrus again chose to pass on his opt-out clause, leaving Texas owing the shortstop $43MM through the 2022 campaign and now not really knowing what to expect from Andrus performance-wise over those three seasons.

Such risks are baked into any extension, of course, and it’s worth noting that Andrus’ hitting potential was a question mark even back at the time of his 2013 deal.  Though he had been a highly-touted prospect (Baseball America ranked Andrus as the 19th-best prospect in the sport prior to the 2008 season) during his time in the Rangers’ farm system, Andrus’ minor league numbers weren’t overly impressive.  Even at the big league level, he hit only .275/.342/.353 over his first 2591 MLB plate appearances.

That said, 2012 marked Andrus’ best offensive showing to date, as he hit .286/.349/.378 over 711 PA and reached the AL All-Star roster for the second time in his career.  And, it’s unfair to say that Andrus wasn’t a valuable offensive player early in his career, considering that his solid average and OBP were augmented by superb speed and baserunning.  Combine these skills with a solidly above-average glovework at shortstop, and it’s easy to see why Texas felt comfortable making a long-term bet on Andrus’ future.

Had that extension not been signed, Andrus would have been a 26-year-old free agent hitting the free agent market in the 2014-15 offseason.  There wasn’t much in the way of premium middle infield talent available that winter, so even though Andrus didn’t do a ton to elevate his stock over the 2013-14 seasons, his young age and hints at further productivity could have still potentially led to a nine-figure contract.  An Andrus free agent deal could have been something of a forerunner to Jason Heyward’s deal with the Cubs a year later, with a team choosing to pay a premium for a 26-year-old, non-elite offensive player based on their overall skillset and future breakout potential.  Heyward had a much better hitting track record than Andrus, so the shortstop wouldn’t have gotten anywhere near the $184MM and eight years Heyward got from the Cubs, though it isn’t a reach to guess that a team could have given Andrus a six-year commitment.

Though it isn’t known whether Andrus will be able to get back on track in 2020 (if there is a season) or beyond, the uncertainty of the back end of his deal doesn’t mean the extension was a mistake for the Rangers.  As per Fangraphs, Andrus has already delivered $85.8MM worth of value over the first five years of the contract, surpassing the $77MM he has earned in real-life money.  Andrus was a major contributor to the Rangers’ AL West titles in 2015 and 2016, and while he has never matched his offensive peaks of 2016 and 2017, his sheer durability has also been a big point of value — the fractured elbow is the only significant injured list stint of Andrus’ entire career.

Indeed, that wayward pitch from Keynan Middleton (on the second-last at-bat of a 7-2 Angels win over the Rangers on April 11, 2018) might end up being the real what-if moment of Andrus’ tenure with the Rangers.  Had Andrus gone on to match his 2016-17 numbers in an uninterrupted 2018 season, he would surely have opted out of his contract and, even in the slow-moving 2018-19 free agent market easily topped the four years and $48MM left on this Texas deal.  In such a scenario, the critics currently bemoaning the Andrus extension would probably have then been criticizing Daniels for negotiating an opt-out clause into the deal in the first place.

Andrus is a notable question mark for a Texas team that is looking to turn things around after three losing seasons.  While the 2020 season could end up being a wash, getting one more solid year out of Andrus in 2021 or 2022 could be enough to mark down the extension as a win for the Rangers in the eyes of the general fanbase.  Even if 2019 is the beginning of end for Andrus as a productive regular, he has still done enough over the course of his contract to make it a decent return for the Rangers, even if that hoped-for leap into superstardom for Andrus never happened.

Yankees Re-Sign David Hale

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TODAY: As it turns out, Hale was re-signed by the Yankees shortly after he was released.  He was initially let go in order to rework the specifics of his minors contract, and to incorporate a new opt-out date into the deal.  The new pact has a deadline set for five days prior to the beginning of the season, whenever that may be.

APRIL 2: The Yankees have released righty David Hale, Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America reports. This move occurred before the institution of a leaguewide roster freeze.

Hale signed yet another minor-league deal with the Yankees over the offseason. He has gone through numerous procedural moves with the club while moving onto and off of the active and 40-man rosters.

Last season was a productive one for the 32-year-old. He threw 37 2/3 innings over twenty appearances in the bigs, working to a 3.11 ERA with 23 strikeouts against seven walks along with a 50% groundball rate. That represented Hale’s most extensive MLB action since 2015.

2019-20 Offseason In Review Series

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Over the last month, MLBTR has continued its annual Offseason In Review series, looking at what all 30 teams did or didn’t do this winter.  Though this offseason has unfortunately continued on longer than anyone could have imagined, we’ll still publish an entry for every team, gauging how their transactions have set them up for the 2020 season.

Here is the updated list of teams covered to date:

AL West

AL Central

  • Chicago White Sox
  • Cleveland Indians
  • Detroit Tigers
  • Kansas City Royals
  • Minnesota Twins

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

Breakout Candidate: Anthony Santander

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The past two years have not been kind to the Baltimore Orioles. All-world prospect Adley Rutschman has joined the fray and is perhaps a harbinger of the franchise’s turning fortunes, but the fact is that two consecutive 100-loss seasons have highlighted a glaring dearth of projectable talent on the Major League roster. But that’s not to say that the big league club is entirely without players worth following. Just about a year-and-a-half into Mike Elias’s tenure as general manager, the rebuild in Baltimore still isn’t particularly far along, but I want to discuss an intriguing player brought in by the previous regime who might have done enough to catch Elias’s attention.

Enter 25-year-old outfielder Anthony Santander. Signed by the Indians as an international amateur in 2011, Santander joined the O’s organization as a Rule 5 draft selection prior to the 2016 season. He’s gotten brief looks in the big leagues since then, but he got his first extended chance with the Orioles in 2019 and turned some heads. And with only 544 MLB plate appearances—just about a full season’s worth—under his belt, there’s development still to be done here.

I don’t fancy myself a scout, but let me propose the following comparison: Santander possesses a skillset and physique that is perhaps reminiscent of the Brewers’ Avisail Garcia. Both are big outfielders with a body that points itself to good power output, but they sneak up on you with deceptive athleticism and speed for their size. I see Santander as having the tools to produce numbers similar to those Garcia put up with the Rays last year. And Garcia might not be a star, but don’t get it twisted: he’s a valuable Major League player who fulfilled a role on a playoff club and parlayed that into $20MM last winter.

At 6-2, 190 pounds, Santander’s measurables are definitely a step below the 6-4, 250 lb. Garcia, but Santander has a thick frame and a strong upper body, and definitely looks bigger than his listed weight. And that’s not a bad thing, especially if he can maintain good mobility to go with an imposing presence at the plate: his Statcast sprint speed ranked in the 64th percentile.

Believe it or not, he reached the 20 home run threshold last year, but he still feels like something of an unknown commodity given 2019’s trivialization of that benchmark. He only notched 380 ABs last year, which places him squarely at 19.0 AB/HR,  right in line with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu, and Rhys Hoskins. Obviously, AB/HR is not the go-to for evaluating a batter’s power, but it gives you an idea of what kind of output is possible with a full year of at-bats. Did I mention he’s a switch-hitter?

His batted ball profile (courtesy of Baseball Savant) corroborates that endorsement of his power: his average exit velocity of 89.6 mph ranked in the 61st percentile of Major League hitters, while his average launch angle (14.8˚) is right in the ideal range for power production. For what it’s worth, his maximum 112.9 mph puts him among the top 25% of hitters with at least 100 batted balls in 2019, so his ceiling might be even higher.

Even so, Santander’s power doesn’t compromise his ability to make contact. He struck out in just 21.2% of his plate appearances, which is right about league average—certainly acceptable for someone with his power capability. Now, part of that relatively low strikeout rate might be due to an aggressive approach: his 51.8% swing rate was the 37th-highest among 207 hitters with at least 400 PAs. That said, his swinging strike rate is surprisingly low, at just 9.7%. That’s pretty impressive for someone who can hit the ball as hard as he does. With that in mind, it’s possible that he could afford to be more choosy at the plate; his strikeout rate might climb ever so slightly, but he makes contact consistently enough that he might not suffer by being in deeper counts.

On a similar note, the biggest hole in Santander’s offensive game is his low walk rate. At just 4.7% in 2019, he only managed a .297 OBP. In an ideal world, we’d see that number climb up to about 8%, or roughly league average. That might be a best-case scenario, given that Santander’s already 25 and routinely posted minuscule walk rates during his minor league career. There’s no doubt that Santander’s maturation as a player hinges partly on this skill, and it could be the difference between him becoming, say, Randal Grichuk, or something more.

To this point in Santander’s career, he’s graded out as a roughly average defender, but there may be potential for more here. Last year, he spent 156 innings (or about 1/5 of his total time in the field) in center field, where he notched -4 Defensive Runs Saved. But that number climbed to a very respectable 5 DRS when he was stationed in right field. We know that defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable in small sample sizes, but still: those numbers suggest that if he shifts to a corner full-time, Santander could establish himself as a firmly above average outfielder, which would go a long way towards rounding out his game.

A profile that includes solid defense, above-average speed, and legitimate power from both sides of the plate is hard to come by. The possibility that Santander could grow into a player that provides exactly that makes him, by my estimation, one of the more intriguing players in the Orioles organization, and a possible installment in the lineup for the foreseeable future.

Remember When The White Sox Threw Four Consecutive Complete Games To Win The Pennant?

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The 2005 Chicago White Sox get a bum deal as far as legacies are concerned. When they ended their 87-year championship drought by sweeping the Astros, they did so on the heels of the Red Sox breaking their own curse in dramatic fashion just a year before. Not only were the ChiSox overshadowed preemptively by Boston, but their victory left the crosstown Cubs with the lone multi-generational curse, which instantly drew more attention than even the Sox’ victory. Needless to say, Southsiders have long had a much-deserved chip on their shoulder as the less-heralded of the two Chicago baseball clubs.

The 2005 White Sox deserved more attention than they got, but not just because of their own broken curse. Ozzie Guillen’s club accomplished an amazing feat just in getting to the World Series, one that we may never see again. After dropping game one of the ALCS to Vlad Guerrero Sr. and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the White Sox won the American League pennant behind four consecutive complete games.

There were zero complete games thrown in the 2019 playoffs. Not a one. There weren’t any in 2018 either. We got one in 2017 (Justin Verlander) and 3 in 2016 (though two of those were in losses where the starter only went 8 innings to get the CG). Not only did the 2005 White Sox rattle off eight straight wins to clinch the World Series, but after taking that game 1 loss (their only loss of the postseason), they strung together four straight complete games from this unlikely quartet: Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, and Jose Contreras.

It’s not impossible that we’ll see this kind of feat again. I mean, hey, Deacon Phillippe threw five complete games in a single postseason. For the 1903 Pittsburgh Pirates. But as far as this century is concerned, Ozzie Guillen’s likely to hold the record for fewest pitching changes in a postseason series.

Speaking of Guillen, you gotta give the guy props for the trust he had in his starting staff. Not only did he ride his starters for all four wins, but not a one of them put up a shutout. There were trials. There were tribulations. But either Guillen forgot the extension for the bullpen phone, or he believed in his horses. It’s not as if this was all that long ago and complete games were a dime a dozen. The four thrown by the White Sox in the ALCS were the only complete games thrown that postseason. There was just one complete game thrown in the playoffs the year before and none the year after. This was a feat. If it were the Red Sox or the Cubs, we’d probably talk about it a lot more.

So let’s take a moment to appreciate the run.

In terms of all-time rotations, Buehrle/Garland/Garcia/Contreras wasn’t exactly Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery. But it was a solid group who put together a remarkable run. These four starters not only came together at the perfect time, but at the perfect time in their individual careers.

Buehrle had the best career of the four as the long-time ace of the Southsiders, but his chief abilities included otherworldly defense and durability. The soft-tossing lefty led the AL in innings pitched in both 2004 and 2005. He put up 200-inning seasons for 14 consecutive years, falling short of the line only twice: his rookie season when he made just 3 starts and totaled 51 1/3 innings, and his final season in the majors, when at age 36 he put up “just” 198 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays (while still leading the majors with four complete games). Buehrle only once cracked the top-5 in Cy Young voting, but he was the definition of a reliable workhorse, and in limiting the Angels to just 5 hits and no walks over a tidy 99 pitches, he set the tone for the 2005 White Sox. The Sox won game 2 behind Buehrle 2-1, and they wouldn’t look back.

Jon Garland struggled to stay healthy for much of his career, but he was peaking in 2005. The 25-year-old, hulking right-hander won 18 games that season with a 3.50 ERA, earning his lone All-Star appearance. He threw three complete game shutouts that season, but the amazing piece for Garland was that his game 3 complete game was his first-ever postseason appearance. Not only that, but he’d only have one more, as the game 3 starter in Houston for the World Series. Garland made the most of it, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits while striking out 7.  Paul Konerko capped off a three-run first inning with a two-run shot off John Lackey, and Garland took them the rest of the way, using 118 pitches to finish off a 5-2 victory and put the White Sox up 2-1. Garland would give the White Sox two more solid seasons in the rotation before they traded him to the Angels following 2007 for Orlando Cabrera. His run with the White Sox, particularly 2005, would easily go down as the highlight of Garland’s playing days.

The White Sox turned to Freddy Garcia in game 4, but they used the same script from the prior night. Konerko hit a 3-run homer off Ervin Santana in the first and the White Sox never trailed. Garcia had failed to capitalize on the tremendous potential he showed as a 24-year-old for the 2001 Mariners, and by 2005 his best years were already behind him. Still, the White Sox acquired him midseason the year before along with another one-time heralded prospect in Ben Davis for a package of Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Garcia put up 3.9 bWAR in his first full season in Chicago, going 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA/4.06 FIP. He threw 228 innings in total, and it was probably his best season outside of Seattle.

His game 4 performance put the White Sox on the brink of the pennant, using 116 pitches while giving up 2 runs, 5 hits, and 1 walk. The Sox tacked on solo runs in each of the third, fourth, and fifth innings, and the Angels never came closer than in the bottom of the second when Garcia surrendered a walk and made an error on an infield single. But with the tying run on first and runners on the corners, Garcia coaxed a double play off the bat of Steve Finley to end the threat. Garcia went the distance and the White Sox won 8-2.

After three straight complete games to put the White Sox up on the Angels 3-1, what really was Jose Contreras to do but go out and do the same? Like Garland, 2005 and 2006 was the pinnacle of Contreras’ stateside career. The Cuban import made his MLB debut as a 31-year-old with the Yankees in 2003, but they shipped him to the White Sox after 18 disappointing starts in 2004 for Esteban Loaiza. In 2005, the 33-year-old Contreras finally posted the type of season that was expected of him after coming over from Cuba. He went 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA/4.21 FIP, good for 3.6 bWAR (second only to the 3.8 bWAR he’d put up the following season).

In many ways, Contreras was the perfect guy to wrap up this incredible run. These outings weren’t the high velocity, high spin types of outings of the current era. Contreras, like the others before him, simply put the ball over the plate and let his defense do the work. He finished with 114 pitches, 3 earned runs, 5 hits, 2 walks, and just 2 strikeouts. Only twice did he allow more than one baserunner in an inning, and 5 times he put together 1-2-3 innings (including the final 4 frames).  The White Sox trailed 3-2 entering the 7th inning, but they’d tie it with a Joe Crede solo shot, then take the lead in the 8th when the Angels defense got sloppy. As for Contreras, after giving up the lead with those two runs in the sixth, he wouldn’t allow a baserunner the rest of the way.

The White Sox had some cushion in games 2-4, but there may have been cause for Guillen to let his starters go long. Dustin Hermanson (yes, Dustin Hermanson) saved 34 games for Chicago that year, but he was out of the role by the playoffs and would make just 6 more appearances in the majors. Bobby Jenks had taken over as closer in the playoffs, but he had just 6 saves and 32 appearances under his belt. Maybe Ozzie Guillen didn’t trust his bullpen, but either way, when Konerko and Aaron Roward each doubled home a run in the ninth, Guillen went back to Contreras to finish out the 6-3 victory and secure the White Sox’ first pennant since 1959. Amazingly, Guillen didn’t even have to lift a finger to do it.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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For the second straight winter, the Cincinnati Reds committed to building a winner the old-fashioned way: by opening their pocketbook. Last winter’s additions were good first steps, but as much as they hoped to unseat the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals, the Yasiel Puig blockbuster aimed to lure bodies through the turnstiles. This winter’s blusterous free agent spending spree, however, had all the urgency of a team earnestly on the rise. These Reds expect to compete.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Pedro Strop, RHP: one year, $1.825MM (incentives could push total value to $3.5MM)
  • Nicholas Castellanos, OF: four years, $64MM (opt out after 2020 and 2021, $20MM club option for 2024)
  • Wade Miley, LHP: two years, $15MM ($6MM in 2020, $8MM in 2021, $10MM club option for 2022 with $1MM buyout)
  • Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B: four years, $64MM ($20MM club option for 2024)
  • Shogo Akiyama, OF: three years, $21MM ($6MM in 2020, $7MM in 2021, $8MM in 2022)
  • Total spend: $165.825MM

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Reds halted their run of four consecutive 90-loss seasons in 2019, albeit modestly with a 75-87 record. David Bell’s rookie campaign as the skipper had its ups and downs, but there are plenty more reasons for optimism than the record alone might suggest. Losing seasons, after all, have a tendency to compound on themselves. As the playoffs fade from view, games take on more nuanced objectives than victory alone. For the 2019 Reds, that meant getting a look at new toy Trevor Bauer, letting Aristides Aquino play superman for a time, and evaluating the roster on the whole to identify – with actionable intent – areas to target for improvement in the offseason.

So what did they find? In a nice change of pace, the Reds put together a top-10 pitching staff in 2019 – only to see their offense sink to the 25th ranked unit in the majors. It would have been temping to roll back the same group in the hopes that Aquino continue his power display, Nick Senzel develop as originally projected, and Eugenio Suarez heal enough to put together another .271/.358/.572-type season. But the Reds saw an opportunity to add offense. It’s fair to wonder if they bid against themselves, but the addition of power bats Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos deepens their lineup enough to forestall the risk of injury depletion elsewhere.

Perhaps most importantly, they filled a hole in center with Japanese import Shogo Akiyama. Akiyama would have been a good fit on a dozen clubs, but the 32-year-old brings his all-around game to Cincy. He’s a true centerfielder with on-base skills that should nicely augment a power-heavy group of sluggers. The Reds aggressively pursued Akiyama from the jump, and now the first Japanese player in franchise history will roam the grass in center on a reasonable contract. Like the Puig deal, Akiyama fits from an on-field perspective, but the business implications of expanding their potential fanbase overseas makes this deal work on multiple fronts.

At shortstop, Freddy Galvis takes over full-time from Jose Iglesias. It’s a lateral move, more-or-less, though Galvis leans a little heavier with the bat. The quality of Galvis’ glove depends on your metric of choice – 11 Outs Above Average from Statcast, 4 DRS and -1.7 UZR from Fangraphs. Let’s assume the Reds are believers. If not, are they just punting on defense? Moustakas is now Galvis’ full-time double-play partner, and he’s been a third baseman for most of his career. That said, Moose graded out okay at second in his limited time there last season (2 OAA, 0 DRS, -0.1 UZR), and it’s at least worth wondering how much body type plays a role in the skepticism over his ability to handle second full-time without a net. It’s natural to assume Senzel will play Moose’s defensive replacement (as well as his understudy), but Senzel is essentially making the same transition with a stopover in centerfield. He looks the part more than Moose, but the jury’s still out on his viability as a defensive upgrade. Regardless, he’s the closest they have to a defensive replacement on the roster.

Which brings us to the first counter-theory to the wisdom of the Reds’ offseason acquisitions. With Castellanos now entrenched in right, the Reds are betting that the offensive contributions from their newcomers will outweigh their defensive limitations. This subplot will be one of the more interesting to track if/when the season gets underway.

The other concern is this: there’s not a lot of flexibility baked into their future rosters given that Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, and Castellanos are all on the payroll for the next four seasons (at minimum). Not only do they need all four to contribute, but even if one falls off the map offensively, the presence of the other three means there’s nowhere to hide (assuming Castellanos opts in after both 2020 and 2021). That said, if Castellanos rakes as one might expect him to in Great American Ballpark, he could very well opt out, and they’d be a little better off in terms of their financial flexibility (while having reaped the benefit of his bat for a year). Positionally, even if Castellanos opts out, it doesn’t lengthen the leash much in the dirt where they’re looking at a 2023 infield of a 31-year-old Suarez at third, 34-year-old Moustakas at second, and 39-year-old Votto at first – but that’s a $54MM problem for the future.

On the other hand, roster flexibility takes many shapes. By upgrading via free agency, the Reds maintained versatility in terms of prospect depth. Nick Senzel steps into a super-utility role, but his name will make the rounds in the trade papers until he finds a regular role or proves himself indispensable. The Reds obviously see a window to compete, and they’re feeling the burn, which turns Senzel and any other prospect in the organization into currency with which they might further upgrade the roster down the line.

On the other side of the ball, the rotation was solid at the outset of the winter. The Reds staffed two of the top 25 starters in the game by measure of fWAR in 2019 (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo). Bauer was roughed up in his first ten starts as a Red (6.39 ERA), though by FIP he was only marginally worse than his career norms (4.85 FIP). Believe it or not, Anthony DeSclafani tied with Chris Paddack and Robbie Ray for 29th in the NL by fWAR in 2019 (2.4 fWAR). Any team would feel pretty good with one of those guys slotting in as a fourth or fifth starter. Still, the Reds had room for another arm, and they got one in the form of Wade Miley on a two-year, $15MM deal. Miley imploded at the tail end of last season, but he was tipping his pitches. Assuming he’s cleaned that up, Miley solidifies their starting five into one of the more impressive units top-to-bottom in the league.

Tyler Mahle becomes the all-important sixth starter, a role akin to a backup quarterback. Whether or not he sees the field, he’s an important piece of the roster. Mahle doesn’t have a bullpen appearance on his major-league record, but the Reds are going to find out if his stuff plays up coming out of the pen.

As for the rest of the bullpen, there are some question marks. Raisel Iglesias is the foundation, and as far as lockdown artists go, he’s fine. Neither a superstar nor a liability, Iglesias enters the year as the closer for the fourth consecutive season after putting up career-best numbers with 34 saves and, more impressively, a 11.96 K/9 rate in 2019. He also sustained 12 losses and 6 blown saves. He’s a piece, for sure, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Amir Garrett evolved into one of the game’s premiere wildcard personalities in 2019, but he’s in a similar boat to Iglesias when it comes to production. He racked up 22 holds with a 3.21 ERA/4.14 FIP, good strikeout numbers (12.54 K/9), but the control was spotty (5.63 BB/9). Not to mention, he took on one entire roster in fisticuffs.

Pedro Strop adds some veteran chops to the bullpen, but he’s coming off a down year. Michael Lorenzen is an extremely handy bench/bullpen piece, but he’s not elite at any one thing. If there’s a concern for the Reds bullpen, it’s that they lack that one sure-thing, All-Star piece. Still, they have viable arms to choose from, and it’ll be on Bell to mix-and-match them to get the most out of this group.

2020 Outlook

The Reds were one of the more aggressive teams of the winter, and while their stature in the NL Central is rising, it’s not a foregone conclusion that they’ve surpassed any of the three clubs they’re chasing. Fangraphs projections peg them for 83 wins over a full 2020 season – even with the Brewers but behind the Cubbies and ahead of the Cardinals. Defense remains a concern, and the bullpen could end up needing an upgrade or two throughout the season (as many do). All that said, if/when a 2020 season is played, the Reds will be one of the more interesting teams to track. They have the depth in the lineup and the rotation to make a run. With Castellanos and Moustakas joining a perennial bottom-dweller in Cincy, they’re going to have some serious “nobody believes in us” energy to feed off. Did they do enough already to make you believe?

How would you grade the Reds’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

The Obstacles Of Televising MLB Games Without Fans

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As other major sports leagues consider the possibility of televising games played in front of empty stadiums, Major League Baseball would love to do the same. The reality of the situation is that even quarantining teams in Arizona or Florida don’t solve all the issues. Too many obstacles remain to make such an arrangement safe under the current conditions, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. With the amount of asymptomatic carriers unclear, there’s no way to guarantee the health and safety of those involved. There are simply too many moving pieces. Even the most bare bones operation for a single game would involve 52 players, plus coaches, umpires, television crews, hotel accommodations, food service workers, drivers, etc.

There would be financial hurdles as well, mostly in terms of allocating the television money. The fact is, a huge proportion of game day revenue comes from fans in the stadium. Without fan revenue, there would have to be a conversation between the league and players about the players taking reduced pay. Teams would not be able to pay players at their normal rates, and while the league and the players’ union have worked diligently at forming peaceful accords throughout this trying time, the amity alone does not smooth all the edges.

Besides, the revenue from TV contracts would not be able to cover the costs, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Acee notes that those teams with their own television networks might be able to make enough for the games to be worthwhile, but for those negotiating with local networks, there would likely be a further reduction in revenue. With the terms of original television contracts altered under the circumstances, the contracts themselves would likely require a renegotiation as well. There have been a few games without fans (or with few fans) aired over the years, and the end product is always a little bit eerie. It might be better than nothing under the circumstances, but where revenue is concerned, every adjustment has trickle down effects that must be negotiated throughout the invested parties.

And of course, there’s the final, most important obstacle, which I’ll relay directly from Rosenthal: “Diverting resources from health care would be another concern. Baseball would need to conduct wide-ranging testing for the virus, isolate anyone who gets sick and provide proper medical attention. Such an effort would require outside assistance, the kind of resources the league could not justify drawing away from the general population in the middle of a public health crisis.”

How To Get A Job In Baseball, According To GMs

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Working in baseball operations for a Major League team is a dream job for many baseball fanatics.  If front office job-seekers are being honest, the pinnacle would be to one day land in the GM’s chair and call the shots on trades, free agent signings, and draft picks.  But in such a competitive field, how do you stand out?  What should you focus on to become as appealing as possible to an MLB team in a job interview?

Seven years ago, I polled many MLB executives on their advice for high school students with front office aspirations.  With so many new executives in the game since then, I decided to move a bit further down the career path and ask this question:

What one piece of advice would you give to a college student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day?

I posed this question to many of MLB’s top-ranking baseball operations executives.  Just like the rest of us, these people are currently sheltered in place with their families trying to get some work done in these difficult and strange times.  The following ten execs kindly took the time to answer my question: Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, Jeff Bridich of the Rockies, Ben Cherington of the Pirates, James Click of the Astros, Mike Elias of the Orioles, Derek Falvey of the Twins, Matt Kleine of the Brewers, Dayton Moore of the Royals, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Mets, and Dick Williams of the Reds.  Their answers are below.

I always think of the creative examples of how several of the current team’s GMs and Presidents got their foot in the door when asked this question. Without sharing those ideas specifically, I tell the individual who asked to think of something that they can bring to the table today that would be beneficial for a baseball operations team. Is there something that they do or can do that would have an immediate impact even if very small. It could be data analysis, programming, scouting, performance coaching, or leadership/communication application but ideally in the form of a project or deliverable and in a perfect world something that the organization doesn’t already have.

I believe that if those looking to get into baseball have excelled in other arenas they should think about how they have done that and share that in a way that is applicable to baseball as that is usually an attractive approach to those who are deciding to add to their operations teams.  – Ross Atkins, Blue Jays Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager

In terms of trying to trying to get into the world of baseball operations out of college, mindset and attitude will determine a lot. Create for yourself a mindset built around relentlessness, flexibility and hard work. The typical college school year and/or graduation timeframe do not lineup perfectly with when most Major League teams are hiring. So there could be some lag time between leaving college and getting hired.

Also, there usually are hundreds, maybe thousands, more applicants for jobs than there are jobs available. So chances are you’ll hear a bunch of “Nos” before you hear a “Yes”. That’s where relentlessness, flexibility and work ethic come into play. Your first opportunity in the baseball industry may not come in the perfect shape, size and package that you desire – but that’s OK. Be flexible in what you are willing to do and where you’re willing to work (be that departmentally or geographically).

At some point in your job search, you may feel like you are being annoying or that you’re bothering team employees too often. But know that relentlessness and persistence often pay off. It’s tough to count up how many times we have said over the years, “You have to give that person credit for his/her persistence,” whether we hired that person or not. If the worst outcome is that you are not hired (yet) but you are given credit for your relentless desire to work in the game, then it’s worth it.

Finally, look at the job search process like it is a job in itself. Put in the time. Make sure your resume is as good as it possibly can be. Ask thoughtful questions of any and all people who could help you. And always be ready – after you’ve sent off your resume and applied for a job, you never know when a team might call you. Those people who are ready for an in-depth discussion at a moment’s notice usually make a good first impression.  – Jeff Bridich, Rockies Executive Vice President & General Manager

It’s hard to narrow down to one but if I had to I’d say finding opportunities to solve complicated problems in groups. Almost all of the work we do in baseball operations focuses on assessing, predicting, or improving human performance. Human performance is complicated. Almost none of the work we do in baseball is done by ourselves. Just about everything we do is done by teams of people. So I’d say the more practice combining those two things the better.  – Ben Cherington, Pirates General Manager

There’s no magic bullet, no secret code to getting into baseball. All of us have a unique story about how we got here, so play to your strengths and put yourself in as good a position as possible to take any job that you’re offered, even if – especially if – it’s not in the area in which you see yourself long term. Every job is an opportunity to show what you can do, a chance to gain valuable experience and perspective on how the game works, and to make sure that this lifestyle is something you want to take on. Finally, don’t get discouraged! It took a lot of us a long time to get into the game, but it’s worth it.  – James Click, Astros General Manager

I think there are so many public forums today to showcase your work online. Whether it’s contract analysis, data analysis, or scouting evaluation that you want to do, you can start to build this body of work on your own, before anyone hires you. It is so helpful when we are interviewing when someone has a portfolio already started. It shows how you work and think, but also shows initiative and that you are truly passionate about this line of work.  – Mike Elias, Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager

I’d recommend that you don’t wait around for the perfect opportunity to come your way and instead find a way to create one. People who want to work in baseball will reach out and say they’re just waiting for that “break” to come their way. It’s not uncommon that a year later we’ll hear from them again still waiting for that opening to show up.

My suggestion – dive into a topic within the game that interests you, learn as much as you can about it, and then generate a work product that shows you have the baseline skills and passion to impact a baseball operation as soon as you walk through the door. Don’t be afraid to try something because you might fail. Of all the resumes we get, it’s the ones that are accompanied by a work product (and therefore a willingness to put yourself out there) that generate the most interest.  – Derek Falvey, Twins President of Baseball Operations

My advice to students is to create baseball-specific opportunities for yourself. Don’t wait for them to come to you. Volunteer to capture video, analyze data or operate pitch tracking software for your school’s team. Connect with your Sports Information Director and ask how you can help. Learn SQL. Learn Spanish. Contact baseball-centric websites and volunteer your time. Devise your own work product that attempts to solve meaningful questions you believe are currently unanswered within the public sphere. This is especially important because providing MLB clubs with examples of self-driven work product showcases your curiosity, thought process, and reasoning. It’s equally as important – if not more so – than a strong resume.

Students should also understand that our approach to hiring is shaped by our constant pursuit of the next marginal win. How can the next hire help us win games both today and in the future? Students who approach us with hard skills, novel work product and a strong resume quickly move to the front of that line.  – Matt Kleine, Brewers Vice President – Baseball Operations

As it pertains to teams and front office, compatibility is the most important trait. This will only exist if you have an above and beyond attitude with the commitment to do the jobs that others simply find meaningless. You must have an “others first” mindset and model that behavior. Finally, never stop looking at this game from the eyes of your youth. – Dayton Moore, Royals Senior Vice President – Baseball Operations/General Manager

1. When interviewing with a prospective employer/executive, be specific about the area in which you want to work. Prove to your audience that you have you done the research in his/her area of focus. This will enable you to be versed enough to hold a meaningful conversation. Those who want a “PARTICULAR job” are much more compelling than those who simply just want “a job.”

2. Be willing to work in any city that has an opportunity to further your pursuits. Don’t let geography limit your search.  – Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets Executive Vice President & General Manager

The best way to get your foot in the door is to figure out how you can solve a problem for me that I may not have even known I had. It makes for a much more effective cold call when you email your resume into an organization if you can articulate what you can do that the Reds are not doing today that could make us better. At least it makes us more likely to read further.

Keep abreast of the evolving trends in the industry and tailor your coursework accordingly. If you have baseball experience, focus on adding database management or machine learning or something technical. And if you are technically skilled, work on adding the baseball experience however you can.  – Dick Williams, Reds President of Baseball Operations

Rebound Candidate: Edwin Diaz

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If the Mets are going to maximize their potential and break their three-year playoff drought in 2020, odds are they’ll need a bounce-back effort from right-handed reliever Edwin Diaz. It’s still tough to believe how little the Mets got last year from Diaz, whom they acquired in December 2018 in what now looks like a regrettable blockbuster with the Mariners.

Diaz concluded his three-season Seattle tenure in epic fashion prior to the trade, turning in one of the greatest years a reliever has ever recorded. He collected 57 saves on 61 tries and logged a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with 15.22 K/9 and 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings en route to AL Reliever of the Year honors. The Mets surely expected Diaz to compete for the NL version of that award last season. No dice.

Diaz wound up ranking among the majors’ worst at preventing runs in his first year with the Mets, as he finished seventh last out of 158 qualified relievers in ERA (5.59) and well below average in FIP (4.51). The .377 batting average on balls in play hitters registered against Diaz had a hand in his sudden ineffectiveness, though he can’t simply be let off the hook for that. After all, someone who was so dominant just the year before (and very good in the prior two seasons) could no longer seem to keep meaningful contact at bay.

Thanks in part to noticeable decreases in groundball percentage and infield fly rate, Diaz’s hard contact jumped by 18.8 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. He ended up in the league’s second percentile in hard-hit percentage and its 11th percentile in average exit velocity against, per Statcast. His slider – a pitch that embarrassed hitters before – was battered to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average, helping lead to a whopping 16 percent increase in home runs. Many pitchers gave up more HRs than usual during a power-happy 2019, but most didn’t so to that extent.

Despite all of that, the 26-year-old Diaz shouldn’t be counted out just yet. He did show some positive signs last season, believe it or not. Diaz lost nothing on his fastball, a pitch that has averaged 97.3 mph in each of his major league seasons. His strikeouts and swinging strikes dropped from his dream ’18 effort, while his walk rate rose, but he was still far above average in the first two categories and passable in the third. In fact, his strikeout rate (39 percent; 15.38 per nine) ranked in the league’s 99th percentile, and he finished fifth among relievers in swinging strikes (18 percent). And it seems Diaz did deserve better when he threw his slider, evidenced by a .272 expected wOBA against the pitch.

None of this is to say Diaz will ever return to his absolute best form, but he does still seem to have what it takes to succeed in the bigs. Even if he does, the Diaz/Robinson Cano trade (the latter has also struggled so far) probably won’t go down as a positive for the Mets. But if Diaz can help stabilize the back end of New York’s bullpen and aid in a return to the playoffs, that would ease the pain to some degree.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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